Rumors have been swirling about the Solar Industry coming back, and I think it was officially confirmed on Monday when Bloomberg reported that the great Warren Buffett was interested in buying the bankrupt Chinese solar company, Suntech Power ($STP).
Buffett for the past two years through his various companies has invested in Solar Projects and companies as he believes there is a real future for Solar in the US and the rest of the world as well as the potential for big returns. So when an event like this happens traders want to participate buy buying a basket of solar stocks or a Solar ETF. Yet this is not the best way or the most lucrative way to play Solar Stocks.
Instead do what my hedge fund trader friend does at his $10 billion dollar hedge fund, he buys 2 or 3 solar stocks that he think will go up the most. Why?
The Solar ETF is too diversified and holds solar stock that are not Chinese based, remember Buffett’s latest target was a Chinese Solar Stock, so you want to focus on Chinese Solar Stocks only. Also the solar ETF ($TAN) will not give you quick triple digit returns which hedge fund traders look for. So what my hedge trader freind does is buy the most volatile, highest beta small cap and low priced solar stocks with the best charts, because stocks in the same sector like Solar all move in tandem. So to produce the biggest returns from solar stock you want to buy the two or three solar stocks that will go up the most if the Solar Group moves in price.
So using his methodology, good charts, low priced high beta stocks, I found two excellent low priced Chinese Solar stocks, that are not only low priced below $5 but have awesome charts and are volatile. I believe both of these Chinese solar stocks will go up 100% or more in the next 3 months if Solar stocks continue to move higher.
To find out the 2 solar stocks that I am buying, which I think will go up 100% or more in the next 3 months email at wmeade@purealpharesearch.com
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
As many of you know from reading this blog before I have spent years doing quantitative research building models for hedge funds, Commodity Trading Advisors and Independent Research Firms, I was educated in Applied Economics and Statistics from Johns Hopkins University and The University of Chicago, and I have worked with many of the biggest and most expensive backtesting software packages, such as Compustat (which costs up to $50,000 a user) in the world.
But to be honest during all my days working for some of the smartest minds in the hedge fund industry and in High Level Academia, I have found that the simpler and easier the model is to understand the better it is. There are 1000’s of PHDs at Hedge Funds and on Wall Street from Ivy League Universities that have built highly sophisticated models and stil most of their models fail, Why, because they are just too complicated, they fall prey to data mining, curve fitting etc.
So with that I have been tinkering with a timing model for ETF’s and leveraged ETF’s based on the simple premise that all investors are controlled by things fear or greed, and that when fear or greed are at an extreme that is the best time to buy or sell short an asset class. With that I took over 20 different asset classes and ETFs: Stocks, International Stocks, Emerging Markets, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas, Tresury Bonds, Volatility, Oil, and various stock sectors (such as technolgy stocks, financial stocks and energy stocks) and backtested what would happen if you bought or sold short these Asset Classes and ETFs at moments of extreme greed or fear, and quite honestly I was shocked at the results.
Not only were the results incredibly profitable, using leveraged etf’s only the model returned over 82% a year and robust meaning (meaning the model made money in almost every month and quarter) but this ETF timing model literally picked almost all the tops and bottoms of most major asset classes, stocks, bonds, Gold etc. More interesting was the fact that the most profitable holding periods were longer than I expected (around 3 to 5 months) , so the model did not generate an excessive amount of trades, but consistently produced 100% plus returns using leveraged ETF’s.
The reason I am mentioning this, is my Leveraged ETF Timing Model has been producing some of the strongest signals I have ever seen in all my 12 years of backtesting.
I am seeing the start of 4 to 5 major trends in 4 to 5 different asset classes and by using leveraged ETF’s, I am pretty sure that I will able to produce a 100% this year off these signals, and the good thing it is not to late to act on these signals either.
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
wmeade@purealpharesearch.com
I just finished reading the book “Why I quit Goldman Sachs” last night written by a former Goldman Sachs employee. First off if you have not read the book dont waste your time, its terrible, but there is one key point that the author made in the book that I wanted to talk about.
That is about insider information and deal flow. The author makes a great point about how all the traders at Goldman Sachs see all of the deal flow that is happenining in the markets they cover. This means Goldman Sachs as one of the largest and most important brokers and market makers in the world has all the biggest pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds trade through their desk. So of course this means they can see what these funds are buying and sellling throughout the day. This gives them a huge information advantage over everyone else especially retail investors.
So this reiterates my point further about Apple ($APPL), as I have told you in posts before, all of the “smart money” has been dumping Apple stock for months, and everyone knows this who is “inside” meaning Goldman Sachs, while you have been buying they have beee shorting Apple since they are seeing huge mutual funds and pension funds slowly dump their entire Apple Position right in front of their face.
If you dont believe me just read the lastest article on Fidelity Contrafund in the Wall Street Journal, it is the world’s largest Mutual Fund with over $90 Billion, yes Billion in assets, and was one of the biggest holders of Apple. Well over the last 3 months Fidelity Contrafund, because it is so big, has been slowly dumping its Apple stock, to the point where it almost owns zero Apple. Now if you knew that the world’s largest mutual fund was going to be dumping millions of shares of Apple stock over a three month period would you still buy Apple? of course not, its like standing in from of a freight train!!
So get smart and find out what the “smart money” is doing with The Billionaires Portfolio at www.billionairesportfolio.com, we tell you what the world’s biggest Billionaire Investors and Hedge Funds are doing with their money. Dont run out in front of a speeding train by buying Apple because Fidelity and its $90 billion in assets will run you over, and that is exactly what has happened to retail investors who have tryed to buy Apple this year.
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
I have told you to sell Apple now for the last 4 weeks, I told you to sell your Silver ETF ($SLV), I am exhausted trying to save you money because you don’t listen.
Again Apple is a broken stock with poor relative strength, as witnessed by yesterdays huge decline, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped less than 1%, Apple dropped 3%. This is going to happen every time we have a down day in the markets, so on a day like today when there is some strength in Apple get out before the stock goes to the $350 $360 range. Moreover always wrong and perennial Apple Bull, Jim Cramer, is even telling you Apple is garbage, Cramer is now calling Apple the JC Penney of Technology.
Now Silver ($SLV), I told you two weeks ago was going to break down hard out of its triangle formation and it did, and the puts I bought and recommended are up more than 100%, so I made a 100% in less than 2 weeks not in 2 days LOL.
Now onto a major serious issue. As I have told you before plagiarism is rampant on the internet, here at The Billionaires Portfolio we have been ripped off multiple times by a website and company called Insider Monkey. First what a stupid name for an investment research company, I take investing seriously its not a joke to me, obviously to these people its funny.
Secondly Insider Monkey is run by a young girl with a journalism degree who has never ever worked or traded for a wall street firm or hedge fund, she has no experience to my knowledge in finance, she is a journalism bottom line. Now I have told you multiple times that my partner and I have over 25 years experience working on Wall Street and for major hedge funds. I have more than a decade of experience working for hedge funds, while my partner was a trader for one of the top Billion dollar global macro hedge funds in the world.
I am not saying this to say I am better than anyone, but I am trying to tell you that we know this business from experience, real world experience working for hedge funds, most of our competitors Motley Fool and Insider Monkey are writers with zero hedge fund experience.
Now Motley Fool, Motley Fool was founded by two brothers who were English majors, who again have zero investing experience, neither Gardner brother has ever worked for a wall street firm or hedge fund. Also Motley Fool hires 22 year old college grads with zero experience to write their articles. Their Apple analyst is 25 years old and was a former college baseball player from Playboy’s number one Party School Arizona State University. He has zero experience in investing or technology yet he is motley fools expert on Apple, and that should tell you plenty about this company.
My point is I cant stop these sites and companies from copying me (motley fool copied me on my apple article) but I can tell you how we differ from them. My partner and I have over 25 years of combined real experience on Wall Street and with Billion Dollar Hedge Funds, were economics majors and MBA’s. Our competitors are journalists and English majors who have never worked at a hedge fund, yet they want to tell you what hedge funds supposedly do.
Just think of it this way when you go to to the Doctor do you want to go to a foot doctor just out of medical school for your heart, or do you want to go to a heart specialist with 25 years of experience. Well here at Billionaires Portfolio, we are the heart specialist with 25 years experience.
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
I wrote a blog post last week about how I have consistently warned investors not to buy Apple ($AAPL), and I spelled out another reason why you should sell Apple immediately.
Well I received over 55 comments almost all of them negative, telling me I was wrong about Apple. I even had one gentleman from the UK who physically threatened me. (I hope he knows that in the US its illegal to threaten someone, and by the way I am 6’5″ 220, so Sir, I will give you my address if you want to talk to me in person lol)
But I am not hear to gripe or be upset over negative comments, I am simply here to try and make people better investors and educate them on how Hedge Funds and institutional traders work. When a stock has poor relative strength like Apple, mutual funds, hedge funds and traders will not buy it.. bottom line. Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds can only raise money or make more money if they beat the S&P 500 and post positive returns. So these professionals, mutual funds and hedge funds are only interested in the short term, they are only interested in making the best possible return for a quarter or three month period. So they will not touch stocks that have poor momentum, because these stocks have proven to lag the market over the short term (which is usually about 3 months).
Apple is a broken stock right now, not only is it down over 12.5% for this quarter, but its down 34% over the last six months also its gets even worse when you look at its performance versus the plain vanilla S&P 500 Index.
The S&P 500 is up 10.2% for the quarter, which means Apple is under performing the S&P 500 by more than 22%, The S&P 500 is up 8.3% over the last 6 months while Apple is down more than 34% over the last six months, so Apple is under performing the S&P 500 by more than 41%…
Because of this poor relative and absolute performance, Apple will go nowhere until we have a market correction of more than 10% or more. The reason for this is market leadership changes when their is a market correction, so when Apple goes to $350 during the next correction, thats when you will see funds loading up on this stock and that’s when you should buy.. until then stay away from Apple please.
Also I have no short position or any position in Apple, I run a service called the Billionaires Portfolio, where I am only long stocks. I am long stocks that have positive momentum plus value and are also owned by the world’s best billionaires investors and hedge funds. This combination has proven historically to produce huge market beating returns for the reasons I just told you (institutional investors such as hedge funds and mutual funds are short term performance chasers), so they like stocks that are moving higher with better relative strength and momentum than the S&P 500 index.
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
Since its March Madness, I wanted to share with you a how a hedge fund trader like myself would bet (if it was legal) on a college basketball game. As everyone knows the biggest story of the tournament is the Cinderella story of Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) the brand new school and basketball team (they didnt even have a basketball gym till 1997) and their two big upsets of Georgetown (which I predicted here on this blog) and San Diego State.
Now on Friday March 29th FGCU is playing the mighty University of Florida Gators. Now on paper this looks like a blowout, UF is the biggest and best athletic school in Florida, and no one outside of Florida had ever heard of FGCU until last weekend. So it’s not surprising that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have the UF Gators a 13 point favorite over FGCU. But what a lot of people dont know is that FGCU not only has been hot in the tournament but they also beat the top ranked University of Miami Hurricanes earlier this season. Also in college basketball especially during the NCAA tournament when everything is on the line, (you are one loss away from going home), almost all of the games are pretty close. So That 13 points spread that UF has to cover seems like a very low probability trade.
Also in sports gambling there is something called the moneyline, the moneyline tells you what the odds are for the underdog team to win the game outright without the spread. In Friday night’s game many casinos have FGCU as an 8 to 1 underdog, meaning that if you bet $100 on FGCU to win the game then you would make $800, a great trade right, but somewhat unlikely.
So here is what a smart trader would do, knowing that the odds that a team will cover 13 points in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA is very unlikely they would bet say $100 on FGCU to beat the spread against Florida, meaning that if Florida wins by 12 or less or loses the game you win $100. Its a simple bet and it pays off 1 to 1. Now you also know that there is a small chance that FGCU is the real thing, they are a very athletic well coached team who certainly doesn’t fear a school from there same state. So you would then take another $100 and bet the moneyline, betting that FGCU will upset the Gators and if they do you would get paid out an amazing 8 times your money or $800.
But as we know if the odds are 8 to 1 it means its pretty unlikely, so to hedge your bet and increase your chances of winning, a smart trader would bet $100 on FGCU to beat the Spread, and a $100 on FGCU to win outright. This would cost the bettor $220, (the $20 is the VIG). Now here are the scenarios. The most likely scenario is UF wins the game over FGCU but does not beat them by more than 12, so you would then virtually breakeven on this trade (you lose the $20 betting fee or vig). so your most likely downside zero or breakeven.
Now if FGCU pulls the upset, you then win both bets or $900, on your original $220 bet, which is a 323% return on your money. So that’s how a smart hedge fund trader would bet this game, hedge his downside risk but also have the chance for a big upside win. ( This is just a scenario, and it is not a recommendation to bet.. please remember that)
So getting back to the investing world, I see the same type of zero or low downside/huge upside trade in the $VIX Index or the $VXX ETF ($VXX).
Right now Volatility is low and probably will stay that way because we are entering a holiday period, Easter, Good Friday and Passover, so I would sell April $VIX out of the money call options and buy May VIX index $VXX call options..
Here is why the biggest enemy of options is time expiration, well the April options have a lot going against them they have a holiday on Friday, the market is closed on Friday, and many of the biggest hedge funds and institutions will not be back trading until Tuesday April 2nd, which than leaves only 14 trading days on the April $VXX out of the money calls.. Your May out of the money calls have a much better chance to make money, as they have almost 5 weeks of trading left on them. Also there is a huge contango premium from April to May built into the VXX ETF currently, the contango premium is more than 8%, meaning if you buy the $VXX ETF right now you have to make more than 8% to just break even, a hard obstacle to overcome.
To find out the exact details of this trade or to understand contango premiums in ETFs you can always email me wmeade@purealpharesearch.com
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
wmeade@purealpharesearch.com
Carl Icahn has been making waves again this time with Dell ($DELL). Icahn is trying to get Dell to pay him or another suitor $15 a share for Dell, which is less than a 5% move from Dell’s current share price. This is great for Carl Icahn who has hundreds of millions of dollars invested in this deal, but honestly that is not the type of return most investors should be looking for in a stock.
In our premium subscription product, The Billionaires Portfolio, we piggybacked one of Carl Icahn’s Holdings, which i felt was the most undervalued and at the same time offered the best return potential of all the stocks Icahn owns, and it worked out perfectly. This stock which Icahn owns we recommended to our clients less than 2 months ago, and it is now up more than 50%. That’s a 50% return in less than 6 weeks.
Again this is what I do for every stock pick that I make in the Billionaires Portfolio, I go through hundreds of stocks that the worlds best billionaire investors and hedge funds own, and then only recommend the most undervalued stocks with the highest return potential.
Remember the most important thing I am doing is aligning myself with the world’s best Billionaire Investors and Hedge Funds, people who have made billions of dollars of real money. Carl Icahn has returned over 25% a year over last 50 years, probably the greatest track record in investing history.
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
www.billionairesportfolio.com
I predicted on this blog (see post from 3/19/2013) that Florida Gulf Coast would upset Georgetown, Iowa State would upset Notre Dame, and Mississippi would upset the Badgers. It all came true and my bracket on Yahoo sports was in the Top 1% of all brackets (over 8 million people).
I told you this wasn’t luck it was just using predictive analysis and modeling. Remember I was educated in economics and statistics at two of most prestigious universities in the World, The Johns Hopkins University and the University of Chicago.
I am telling you this because I am about to make some of the biggest and boldest predictions of anyone in the Investing World.
My quantitative and statistical models are signaling some amazing things, that will impact your portfolio in a massive way. I am talking about huge drastic moves in the stock market ($SPY), ($DIA), ($QQQ), bonds ($TLT) and commodities ($GLD) ($SLV).
If I can pick 3 of the 4 biggest upsets in the NCAA tournament with my models, including the biggest upset ever (FGCU over Georgetown) in the history of college basketball through my statistical models, imagine how powerful the signals are from my investing models, in which I have spend my entire career and education perfecting.
I promise that if you do not position your portfolio properly in the next few weeks you could lose 20% to 30% of your net worth very quickly.
All you have to do is sign up for my service The Billionaires Portfolio, and I will tell you how the world’s smartest Billionaire Investors and Hedge Funds are investing plus you also get access to my predictive quantitative models, all of this for the only $299 a quarter. Remember I charge my institutional investors over $1000 a quarter for my exclusive research.
Please for the sake of your portfolio or retiremement at least go to www.billionairesportfolio.com and sign up for our free text alerts. Its the only real time text alert service that signals you whenever a Billionaire Investor buys 5% or more of a stock. Its its completely free. www.billionairesportfolio.com
People should now understand the power of using statistical analysis in picking NCAA Brackets or in investing. As everyone knows in my top performing Billionaires Portfolio Service not only do I piggyback the world’s best Billionaire Investors and Hedge Funds, but I also use my applied economics and statistics degree from Johns Hopkins University to pick which Billionaires stock picks will go up the most.
So I am proud to say not only can I pick NCAA brackets, almost perfectly I picked 15 of the 16 games correct including Harvard but also and more importantly my Billionaires Portfolio Service has had 4 stocks go up more than 100% in less than 6 months, and we only own 18 stocks in the portfolio.
Also as everyone knows about 2 weeks ago I talked about how I shipping stocks were breaking out and the best way to play this was to buy the most leveraged, volatile shipping stock Eagle Bulk Carriers, ($EGLE), (please see my post on 3.7.2013 on this) anyways Eagle ($EGLE) is up almost 100% in 2 weeks time, it is the number one performing stock on the NYSE out of 10,000 stocks. Basically using my quantitative analysis I picked the number 1 stock that went up the most out of 10,000 possible stocks on the NYSE as Eagle Bulk Carriers ($EGLE) is up almost 100% in the last 2 weeks.
Folks this isn’t luck, you don’t pick 94% of the NCAA tournament winners and the biggest upset in the tournament, and then pick stocks that go up more than 100%, its skill not luck I promise. I work very hard for you running models and doing my statistical analysis, and when you combine this with piggybacking the world’s best Billionaire Investors and Hedge Funds stock picks its an extremely powerful and lucrative combination.
There is a very nice setup occurring in the Silver ETF ($SLV), it has formed a nice bearish triangle pattern, which usually happens after a big down move. I am looking for Silver to break down hard out of this triangle after the Fed Meeting. So the best way to play this, the way that Billionaires play this, is to use super juiced deep in the money put options. (Please see previous blog post where I explain what this means)
Why am I picking Silver here to short, first The Fed meeting always moves the Silver and Gold Markets, secondly Silver puts are extremely cheap, because ($SLV) or the Silver ETF has traded flat for the last month
Here are the Options I like, I like the April $29 Strike Put Options for $1.25, this option expires on April 4th. This literally lets you profit almost 1 for 1 with the Siver ETF, meaning the current price of the Silver ETF is $27.88, and this put option would be in the money at $27.75, only $.13 cents below the actual price of the Silver ETF, so basically you are getting a super leveraged way to short the Silver ETF.
If ($SLV) the Silver ETF breaks below the $27.60 level than it will go to $26.50 the next support level by this thursday or friday. That would give you a 100% return on your put option because you are paying a $1.25 for the put or $125 dollars and you would make $1.25 or $125 dollars on the put option if you take your profit at the $26.50 level. Not a bad return for one or two days work
Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio
wmeade@purealpharesearch.com
