September 21, 2020
Just when you thought the political landscape couldn't get crazier, it has, with the opening of a Supreme Court Justice seat.
Markets are broadly lower today (global stocks and commodities) on the idea that more fiscal aid is NOT coming, because of the (even uglier) partisan war that will now transpire over a new Justice nomination and confirmation.
I've argued that another package wasn't coming anyway. As we've discussed, the democrats lost their leverage last month, when Trump used executive order to extend the federal unemployment subsidy.
That federal unemployment check was the bargaining chip that the democrats were relying on, to force republicans to submit to nationwide mail-in voting legislation, "because people shouldn't have to risk their lives (i.e. risk getting Covid) to vote." When Trump stripped the unemployment check out of the negotiations, the deal was dead – the dems lost their path to mail-in voting.
With this in mind, for markets, does the uptick in political chaos mean there is more risk in markets today, than there was last week. No.
Even if that were not true, knowing that the Fed is in full backstop mode (and will be there for a long time), the dip in broad stocks should be bought.
Stocks are important to promoting confidence, stability and wealth. If stocks were to get messy (i.e. a quick and "disorderly" decline), we know exactly what the Fed would do. There is no doubt.
They would outright buy stocks.
In fact, they will do anything and everything to preserve stability and to preserve the recovery — and to protect the trillions of dollars that have been spent to manufacture that recovery.
As a proxy on broader stocks, and broader risk appetite, this is probably the most important chart to watching in the coming day(s).
As you can see, Apple is testing this big trendline from the March bottom. This line comes in at 105.88. A sustained break here would project a move to the low-to-mid $90 area, which would represent a return to the late July levels. That would be giving back all of the gains of big tech's (including Apple's) monster Q2 earnings, where it was revealed just how stacked the lockdown economy deck was in favor of the big tech monopolies.