Trump and Bessent have amplified the "shadow Fed" in recent days by identifying a long list of Fed chair "candidates" that are now credible voices on monetary policy.
We've talked about names like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh in recent weeks, and now we're hearing from others — all are publicly articulating the case for lower rates.
Reported candidate Rick Rieder, Blackrock CIO, said the Fed could afford to get rates down by 100 bps quickly.
Candidate Jim Bullard, former Fed President, said rates could be 100 bps lower by this time next year (a statement that probably doesn't get him the job).
Reported candidate David Zervos, strategist at Jeffries/former Fed economist, said there's a case for significant rate cuts, and even suggested the Fed should re-examine their decision to hold, given the new information on the labor market (implying an intermeeting cut).
And Scott Bessent himself, the Treasury Secretary, who maybe has the most powerful opinion on who will become the next Fed Chair, said today that the Fed is behind, based on the soft labor data, and "could" start with a 50 bps cut in September. And he said we should probably be 150-175 basis points lower.
And remember, Trump has said many times over the past month that rates should be much lower, like 3 points lower (close to 1%).
His argument is that U.S. rates should be the lowest in the world, because it's the safest, most liquid borrower in the world, with the reserve-currency, rich asset base and perfect debt-service record.
This hasn't been taken seriously, but maybe it should be — because it's the President, reframing the Fed's mandate to permanently price U.S. short term borrowing off its hegemonic credit profile.