October 10, 5:00 pm EST

Yesterday we talked about the risks surrounding markets (Italy, Interest Rates, China), and said these risks are likely serving as a catalyst to start the correction in tech stocks
And we looked at this chart on Amazon as the key one to watch.

Here’s what the chart looks like today …


This big trendline broke today, a line that represents the more than doubling of Amazon in a little more than one year’s time.  This is a company that went from a valuation of $500 billion to $1 trillion in a year.

So we get this big technical break, and Amazon is now down 14% from the highs.

Again, as we’ve discussed here in my daily note many times, at a trillion dollar valuation, the market was pricing Amazon like a monopoly that would go unchecked, and allowed to destroy any and all industries in its path.

But Trump has made it clear that he’s not going to let it happen.  Amazon, Facebook and Google have all been subject to Trump threats to rein them in through regulation — to level the playing field for their competition.  And if there’s one thing we know about Trump, as the President: he will follow through on threats, and he likes a good fight.

With that, the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) trade, after being UP as much as 50% this year (as an equal weighted group), isfinally breaking down.  And that is creating some shock waves in broader markets.

So, is this the beginning of a bigger global meltdown or will it ultimately be a repricing of the tech giants.  I think the latter.

Remember, the tech heavy Nasdaq, for much of the year, performed with near impunity from any geopolitical turmoil.  As trade rhetoric heightened, the Dow would suffer, while the Nasdaq continued to climb.  At one point this summer, the Nasdaq was up double-digits on the year, while the Dow was down.

So this is more likely a rebalancing (the rotation from tech giants to value stocks).

As we go into third quarter earnings, we continue to run at 20% earnings growth on the year.  The P/E for stocks remains low, in a low/accommodative interest rate environment (yes, 3.2% 10-year yield remains low relative to history).  And the economy is hot, with low and stable inflation.

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October 9, 5:00 pm EST

There are always plenty of risks surrounding markets.  Still, stocks tend to be pretty good at “climbing the wall of worry.”

But we’ve now had some swings since the beginning of the month.  Have stocks hit the wall at the recent record highs?  Have the growing geopolitical risks begun to finally outweigh the fundamental strength in the economy and the stock market?

Not likely.  More likely, these risks have served as a catalyst for a correction.  In this case, a correction in tech stocks.

And it has been driven by one of the highest flyers:  Amazon.

At the highs of last month, Amazon had jumped 112% in a little less than 12 months.  That’s over $500 billion in market cap gains for Amazon since September of last year.  Just that increase in valuation alone is bigger than all but four stocks in the world.

So, as we’ve been discussing in this daily note for quite some time, the regulatory screws have been tightening on big tech.  And Amazon is in the crosshairs.  Meanwhile, it has been priced as if the developing monopoly would go unchecked.  As I’ve said, “not a good bet.”

Now that “monopoly premium” seems to finally be deflating.

After crossing the trillion-dollar valuation threshold (which was the dead top in the stock), Amazon has now had an official 10% correction.  

This big trendline in Amazon will be key to watch.

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September 5, 5:00 pm EST

Yesterday we talked about the case for breaking up Amazon, on the day it crossed the trillion-dollar valuation threshold.  Today the stock was down 2%.

Also today, Facebook and Twitter executives visited Capitol Hill for a Congressional grilling.

If you listened to Zuckerberg’s Congressional testimony in April, and today’s grilling of Jack Dorsey (Twitter) and Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook), it’s clear that they have created monsters that they can’t manage.  These tech giants have gotten too big, too powerful, and too dangerous to the economy (and society).

All have emerged and dominated, thanks in large part to regulatory advantage – operating under the guise of an “internet business.”   And it all went unchecked for too long.  These are monopolies in the making.  But, as we know, Trump is on it.

As we discussed yesterday, Amazon has to, and will be, broken up.  As for Facebook, Google, Twitter, Uber:  the regulatory screws are tightening.  Those businesses won’t look the same when it’s over. But it’s complicated. The higher the cost of compliance, the smaller the chances that there will ever be another Facebook or challenger.  That goes for many of the tech giants.

With that in mind, regulation actually strengthens the moat for these companies.

That would argue that they may ultimately go the way of public utilities (in the case of Facebook, Google and Twitter).

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September 4, 5:00 pm EST

Today, Amazon became the second company (following Apple) to cross the one trillion-dollar valuation threshold.

This stock is up 72% year-to-date.  It has doubled in the past year and has nearly tripled since Trump’s election. That’s what happens when you have a pour gasoline (economic growth) on a fire (a monopoly).  No one should love Trump more than Jeff Bezos.

But at 161 times earnings, the market seems to be betting on the Amazon monopoly being left to corner all of the world’s industries.  That’s a bad bet.

Much like China undercut the competition on price and cornered the world’s export market, Amazon has undercut the retail industry on price, and cornered the world’s retail business.  That tipping point (on retail) has well passed.  And as sales growth accelerates for Amazon, so does the speed at which competition is being destroyed.  But Amazon is now moving aggressively into almost every industry.  This company has to be/will be broken up.

The question is, how will the market value an ecommerce business that would no longer be subsidized by the high margin Amazon cloud business (AWS)?  A separation of the businesses would put Amazon’s ecommerce margins under the Wall Street microscope (as every other retailer is subjected to) and materially impact a key sales growth driver for Amazon, which is investment in innovation (R&D).

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Nasdaq:AMZN, Nasdaq:AAPL, Nasdaq:FB, Nasdaq:GOOG


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James Bullard, the President of the St. Louis Fed, said today that even if unemployment went to 3% it would have little impact on the current low inflationevironment. That’s quite a statement.  And with that, he argued no need to do anything with rates at this stage.​And he said the low growth environment seems to be well intact too — even though we well exceeded the target the Fed put on employment years ago.  In the Bernanke Fed, they slapped a target on unemployment at 6.5% back in 2012, which, if reached, they said they would start removing accomodation, including raising rates. The assumption was that the recovery in jobs to that point would stoke inflation to the point it would warrant normalization policy. Yet, here we are in the mid 4%s on unemployment and the Fed’s favored inflation guage has not only fallen short of their 2% target, its trending the other way (lower).

​As I’ve said before, what gets little attention in this “lack of inflation” confoundment, is the impact of the internet. With the internet has come transparency, low barriers-to-entry into businesses (and therefore increased competition), and reduced overhead. And with that, I’ve always thought the Internet to be massively deflationary. When you can stand in a store and make a salesman compete on best price anywhere in the country–if not world–prices go down.

And this Internet 2.0 phase has been all about attacking industries that have been built upon overcharging and underdelivering to consumers. The power is shifting to the consumer and it’s resulting in cheaper stuff and cheaper services.  And we’re just in the early stages of the proliferation of consumer to consumer (C2C) business — where neighbors are selling products and services to other neighbors, swapping or just giving things away.  It all extracts demand from the mainstream business and forces them to compete on price and improve service.  So we get lower inflation.  But maybe the most misunderstood piece is how it all impacts GDP.  Is it all being accounted for, or is it possible that we’re in a world with better growth than the numbers would suggest, yet accompanied by very low inflation?

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The dollar has come into the crosshairs of the new president in recent weeks.

Let’s talk about what’s happening and why it matters.

First, it’s highly unusual for the U.S. President to comment on the dollar. The Fed doesn’t even comment. If they do it’s in an indirect way. It has always been a topic deferred to the Treasury Secretary. And the consistent message there has been, for a long time, that we are for a strong dollar.

Things have changed. Or have they? In mid-January, President Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the dollar was “too strong.”

The markets have had a hard time trying to reconcile this comment and stance taken by the administration. But we have to keep in mind: The new president has been a bit less than measured in his words.

When the Fed is in a hiking cycle and other major central banks are still in QE mode, capital will continue to flow into the U.S., and you’re going to get a stronger dollar. When you incentivize U.S. corporates to repatriate a couple trillion dollars they have offshore, you’re going to get a stronger dollar. When/if you pop growth to 4%, you’re going to get higher rates, faster, and you’re going to get a stronger dollar (especially when that growth will lead the rest of the world).

So what is this jawboning on the dollar all about?

As we know, Trump has had an early focus on trade. And he’s used displeasure with trade deficits with countries as a bargaining chip to start conversations about more fair trade terms. But while many have been pulled into the fray over the past few weeks (like Canada, Mexico, the euro zone, etc), this is all about China. My guess is he’s using Mexico as an example for China.

We’ve heard a lot about the $60 billion trade deficit Mexico. It is our third largest trading partner. But that deficit is peanuts when compared to China. Same can be said for Japan, Germany and Canada, three of our other largest trading partners. With China, however, we buy about $483 billion worth of goods. And we sell them only about $116 billion. That’s a $367 billion deficit.

The problem is, it never corrects. It continues, and will continue, unless dealt with. Currencies are the natural trade rebalancer. And with China, it doesn’t happen because they outright dictate the exchange rate. The cheap currency has been/and continues to be its economic driver–and it’s the unfair competitive advantage that has crippled the global economy over time.

Consider this: Over the past 20 years, China’s economy has grown more than fourteen-fold! … to $10 trillion. It’s now the second largest economy in the world. During the same period, the U.S. economy has grown just 2.5x in size. And in the process a global credit bubble was formed. China sells us goods. We give them dollars. China takes our dollars and buys U.S. Treasuries, which suppresses U.S. interest rates and incentivizes borrowing, which fuels more consumption. And the cycle continues.

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We’ve talked a lot about oil, the rebound of which has probably led to the trade of the year.  If you recall back on February 8th, we said policymakers finally got the wake up call on the systemic threat of the oil price bust when Chesapeake Energy, the second largest oil and gas producer, was rumored to be pursuing bankruptcy.

This is what we said:

“The early signal for the 2007-2008 financial crisis was the bankruptcy of New Century Financial, the second largest subprime mortgage originator.  Just a few months prior the company was valued at around $2 billion. 

On an eerily similar note, a news report hit this morning that Chesapeake Energy, the second largest producer of natural gas and the 12th largest producer of oil and natural gas liquids in the U.S., had hired counsel to advise the company on restructuring its debt (i.e. bankruptcy).  The company denied that they had any plans to pursue bankruptcy and said they continue to aggressively seek to maximize the value for all shareholders.  However, the market is now pricing bankruptcy risk over the next five years at 50% (the CDS market).

Still, while the systemic threat looks similar, the environment is very different than it was in 2008.  Central banks are already all-in.  We know, and they know, where they stand (all-in and willing to do whatever it takes).  With QE well underway in Japan and Europe, they have the tools in place to put a floor under oil prices. 

In recent weeks, both the heads of the BOJ and the ECB have said, unprompted, that there is “no limit” to what they can buy as part of their asset purchase program.  Let’s hope they find buying up dirt-cheap oil and commodities, to neutralize OPEC, an easier solution than trying to respond to a “part two” of the global financial crisis.” 

Chesapeake bounced aggressively, nearly 50% in 10 business days.  

And on February 22nd, we said, “persistently cheap oil (at these prices) has become the new “too big to fail.” It’s hard to imagine central banks will sit back and watch an OPEC rigged price war put the global economy back into an ugly downward spiral.  And time is the worst enemy to those vulnerable first dominos (the energy industry and weak oil producing countries).”

As we’ve discussed, central banks did indeed respond.  The BOJ intervened in the currency markets on February 11, and that (not so) coincidently put the bottom in oil and global stocks.  China followed on February 29, with a cut on bank reserve requirements, then ECB cut rates and ramped up their QE and the Fed joined the effort by taking two projected rate cuts off of the table (we would argue maybe the most aggressive response in the concerted central bank effort).

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From the bottom on February 8th, Chesapeake shares have gone up five-fold, from $1.50 to over $7.  Oil bottomed February 11 and is up 77%.  This is the trade of the year that everyone should have loved.  If you’re wrong, the world gets very ugly and you and everyone have much bigger things to worry about that a bet on oil and/or Chesapeake.  If you’re right, and central banks step in to divert another big disaster (a disaster that could kill the patient) you make many multiples of your risk.

We think it was the trade of the year.  The trade of the decade, we think is buying Japanese stocks.

Overnight the BOJ made no changes to policy.  And the dollar-denominated Nikkei fell over 1,200 points (more than 7%).

As we said yesterday, two explicit tools in the Bank of Japan’s tool box are: 1) a weaker yen, and 2) higher stocks.  I say “explicit” because they routinely have said in their minutes that they expect both to contribute heavily to their efforts. So now Japanese stocks and the yen have returned near the levels we saw before the Bank of Japan surprised the world with a second dose of QE back in October of 2014.  So their efforts have been undone. And they’ve barely moved the needle on their objective of 2% inflation during the period.  In fact, the head of the BOJ, Kuroda, has recently said they are still only “halfway there” on reaching their goals.

So they have a lot of work left.  And if we take them at their word, a weak yen and higher stocks will play a big role in that work.  That makes today’s knee-jerk retreat in yen-hedged Japanese stocks a gift to buy.

U.S. stocks have well surpassed pre-crisis, record highs.  German stocks have well surpassed pre-crisis, record highs.  Japanese stocks have a long way to go.  In fact, they are less than “halfway there.”

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Everyone has read news in the past about a big buyout in the stock market. And often the news will report that the stock in the company that is being acquired skyrocketed on the day. Envy tends to follow.

Generally, companies that are bought, are bought for a significant premium. Otherwise, shareholders would likely reject the offer. So when you hear of a big takeover, it’s not unusual to hear of a 20%,30%, even a 100% pop for shareholders on the day of the announcement.

So how to you identify the next big takeover? One of the easiest ways is to follow big, influential shareholders into stocks where they are pushing companies to sell themselves.

This week, we owned a stock in our Billionaire’s Portfolio, MedAssets (MDAS), that was taken over for a 33% premium. We held this stock for only two months, following the lead of one of our favorite activist investors, Starboard Value.

Starboard is one of the best at articulating recommendations for management and helping them execute on it. We followed Starboard Value into Office Depot and doubled our money. Starboard is run by the Wharton educated Jeff Smith, who is a tenacious and detailed activist investor. He has one of the best activist track records in the business. Since inception almost 13 years ago, Smith’s fund has made money on 82% of their activist campaigns (prior to MDAS). That’s one of the highest win rates in the industry.

Starboard took a huge activist stake in MedAssets in August and wrote a detailed letter to the company, outlining a plan to unlock value, which included strategic alternatives (such as the sale of the company).

Fast foward just two months: MedAssets was the second biggest winner in the entire stock market on Monday.

There has been a lot written about billionaire investing and activism over the past couple of years. It’s become a very hot topic. And the investors themselves, which once coveted anonymity, now utilize the spotlight to their advantage. Twitter, the internet and the media obsession with their wealth gives them the platform to spread their message about underperforming companies, and garner support from fellow shareholders. Still, finding the right investors to follow, and identifying the right opportunities is paramount.

Out of the 29 campaigns we’ve exited in our Billionaire’s Portfolio since the inception of our service, in August of 2012, five of the stocks were acquired.

That’s 17% of the stocks we’ve selected, and exited, that have been taken over for big premiums – so, strong anecdotal evidence that following influential shareholders that are pushing for a sale works!


The S&P 500 is now more than 200% higher than at its crisis-induced 2009 lows. Despite the powerful recovery in stocks, the rally has had few believers. All along the way, skeptics have pointed to threats in Europe, domestic debt issues, central bank meddling, political stalemates, perceived asset bubbles — you name it. As it relates to stocks, they’ve all been dead wrong.

The truth is, global central banks are in control. They have been coordinating since 2009 to save the worldwide economy from an apocalyptic spiral. Because the crisis was global, and the structural problems remain highly intertwined globally, the only hope toward achieving a return to sustainable growth was through a coordinated effort to restore stability and confidence. And with that backdrop, they had to create incentives for people to take risk again. It has worked! With the Fed moving closer to exiting emergency policies, this past year, the QE baton has been passed from the Fed to the ECB and the BOJ.

Pioneer Activist Investor Has a 1,700% Price Target On His Sole Holding

As part of the massive QE programs in Europe and Japan, the Bank of Japan has been outright buying stocks and the ECB might be next. After doubling the value of the Nikkei with his economic stimulus program, the architect of Abenomics, Prime Minister Abe, has said they are only “half way to its goals.” With the tail-winds of central bank influence to continue (Reason #1 to buy stocks). Here are three more simple reasons you should be buying, not selling, stocks:

1) History

If we applied the long-run annualized return for stocks (8%) to the pre-crisis highs of 1,576 on the S&P 500, we get 3,150 by the end of next year, when the Fed is expected to begin the slow process toward normalizing rates. That’s nearly 52% higher than current levels. Below you can see the table of the S&P 500, projecting this “normal” growth rate to stocks.

2) Valuation
In addition to the above, consider this: The P/E on next year’s S&P 500 earnings estimate is just 16.2, in line with the long-term average (16). But we are not just in a low-interest-rate environment, we are in the mother of all low-interest-rate environments (ZERO). With that, when the 10-year yield runs on the low side, historically, the P/E on the S&P 500 runs closer to 20, if not north of it. If we multiply next year’s consensus earnings estimate for the S&P 500 of $126.77 by 20 (where stocks to be valued in low rate environments), we get 2,535 for the S&P 500 by next year — 23% higher.

3) Recession Risk

For those who argue the economy is fragile, the bond market disagrees with you. The yield curve may be the best predictor of recessions historically. Yield curve inversions (where short rates move above longer-term rates) have preceded each of the last seven recessions. Based on this analysis, the below chart from the Cleveland Fed shows the current recession risk at 3.66% — virtually nil.

What about the impact on stocks of a rate hiking cycle? Historically, through the past six rate hiking cycles stocks have performed well, contrary to popular belief. Still, there is an important distinction this time: The Fed moving away from emergency policies is a celebratory event for stocks and the economy. After nine years of crisis, and a near global apocalypse, the Fed thinks the economy is robust enough take down the “high alert” flag.

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This morning, the European Central Bank primed global stocks by telegraphing more action (more stimulus) to respond to the recent shake up in global economic activity and sentiment.

It had to happen. In the grand scheme of things, the ECB’s sentiment manipulation this morning was the bare minimum of what had to be done.

The global central banks (led by the Fed) have spent, committed and promised trillions of dollars to manufacture the tepid recovery that’s underway, in hopes that they can bridge their way to the point where economies begin to organically grow again. That bridge has not yet reached the point of organic growth. And it’s not even that close. With that said, the recent collapse in oil prices, and the threat to an implosion of the energy sector was getting narrowly close to undoing what the central banks have done to this point. And, not only is another downturn unpalatable, but it’s apocalyptic. The bullets have all been fired. Fiscal and monetary policy would have no shot to ward off another global destabilization.

The plan for the continuation of the global central bank-led (and manufactured) economic recovery has been clear. And the evolution, where the U.S. economy began leading global growth, while Europe and Japan were just embarking on big and bold stimulus is likely the reason Bernanke felt comfortable enough to exit. Think about it, the Fed hands off of the QE baton to the ECB (Europe) and the BOJ (Japan). Meanwhile, the Fed can make the first step in moving away from emergency policies. Europe and Japan have all of the ingredients to execute on their big QE promises to continue providing fuel for global growth and stability (they need a weaker currency).

The Fed’s exit from emergency policies shows their confidence in the economic recovery. And the ECB and BOJ can “print away”, suppressing global market interest rates (which helps the Fed), fueling higher global stock prices (which helps everyone), and fueling capital flows into the U.S. to further bolster U.S. recovery.

The question is often asked, when referring to QE, “what is the transmission mechanism?”

Here’s the answer: 1) Stability – QE assures people that the central bank(s) are there, acting, and ready to do more, if needed, to defend against any further shocks to the global economy and financial system. That creates stability. And with that stability backdrop, major central banks promote incentives for people to borrow again, to spend again, to hire again. 2) Risk-Taking – Ultra-low interest rates and a stable environment promotes the rebirth of housing activity, and encourages investors to reach further out on the risk curve for more return. That means more demand for stocks, and higher stock prices. Higher stocks and higher housing prices create paper wealth. Paper wealth gives people comfort to borrow again, to spend again and to hire again.

That has been the recipe. And it has worked! The key ingredients continue to be higher stocks and higher housing prices (even if at a modest growth rate).

Central Banks Need You To Buy Stocks

With the ECB doubling down on their commitment to do “whatever it takes” and with the architect of the massive
QE program in Japan, Prime Minister Abe, uttering those same words in the past month, the pressure valve on the Fed has been released and should clear the path for the Fed to make its first move on interest rates in nine years this coming December.

When we consider where we’ve been (fighting back from what was potentially the Great Apocalypse of economic crises), and how the economy is performing now, the fact that the Fed thinks the economy is robust enough to remove emergency policies is, indeed, a time for celebration.

And with that, there are plenty of reasons to buy stocks, not just because central banks need you to. But frankly, most people don’t seem to understand this central bank dynamic anyway. And that’s precisely why sentiment has been gloomy on stocks for the entire recovery, dating back to the 2009 bottom.

Given this negative sentiment, with respect to the economic outlook and the outlook for stocks, it’s not surprising that the declines in stocks along the way have been sharper and more slippery because of this pervasive fear in the investment community. Along the way that has created great buying opportunities. This recent decline is no different. Often market sentiment tends to over emphasize events. And it tends to be wrong (contrarian). Nonetheless, when events pass, as we’ve seen along the way, regardless of the outcome, the fog lifts, and the underlying fundamentals return to dictate performance.

From a valuation standpoint, when rates are “low,” historically, the P/E ratio of the stock market tends to run north of 20. And, of course, we are not just in a low interest rate environment; we are in the mother of all low interest rate environments, even with the Fed ready to begin moving. North of 20 is precisely where the valuation on stocks has gone in the past year. Now, based on next year’s earnings estimate, the market is valued at just 15x. A move to 20x earnings would mean an S&P 500 around 2,600 by next year. That’s 30% higher than current levels.

Why would a low rate environment tend to mean higher valuations for stocks?

Economics are about incentives, and when rates are ultra-low, people are incentivized to switch out of bonds and into stocks, to seek higher yield/higher returns. When we think about the direct implications of this incentive dynamic, we look no further than the amount of cash that big funds are holding, and where that might find a home.

Historically, one of the most predictive indicators of stock market bottoms is how much cash fund managers are holding. Right now, cash is at levels only seen during the 2008-2009 Great Recession period. Fund managers are holding 5.5% of their portfolio in cash and their allocation to stocks are at the lowest levels since 2012. Furthermore, 35% of all funds are now overweight cash.

When you see fund managers so pessimistic on stocks, while holding so much cash, it has historically been a signal for a huge move in stocks. These managers are paid to invest, and cash has always been the dry powder that’s fueled every rally in stocks throughout history. When fund managers are not holding cash and are fully invested, they have no powder left to buy stocks. The only way they can buy a stock is to sell another stock, which usually occurs at market tops.

The last two times fund managers held this much cash while being so underweight stocks was 2009 and 2012.

What happened? A huge rally! Between 2009 and 2011, the S&P rose 41%. Between 2012 and 2014, the S&P 500 rose 46%.

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