Yesterday, we talked about Trump’s Iran strategy, and how he has repeatedly referenced the “Venezuela model“– take control of the oil, fund the country and the restructuring, prevent the re-emergence of the old regime.

With that in mind, Trump held a cabinet meeting this morning. And in the middle of it, he turned to Marco Rubio and asked, “Cuba and Venezuela, what’s going on there?”

Rubio said Venezuela is in “a three-phase process … stabilization, recovery, and transition.”

Then he walked through the mechanism.

Since January 3, over 10 million barrels of Venezuelan oil have been delivered to the United States. He said, the industry is being “professionalized for the first time ever.”

The crude is sold “in the market at market rates.” And “the money is going to an account in the United States controlled and monitored by Treasury, audited by KPMG. And it’s for the first time ever, the money’s not being stolen. It’s going to the benefit of the Venezuelan people.”

That’s the Venezuela model stated by the Secretary of State. A Treasury-controlled account. KPMG audit. Market sales. Revenue restructured away from the regime, toward the people.

As we discussed in my note yesterday, this model applied to Iran would have to involve controlling Kharg Island (the terminal that moves the overwhelming majority of Iran’s crude). 

Is that why Bessent has said he expects crude prices to be “lower than pre-conflict levels when this ends” (his exact words today)? 

The U.S. Department of Treasury already controls Iran’s money. The U.S. Department of War controls the travel of oil. And with that, there’s no need for a big kinetic seizure. Time does the work (as Trump has said, “time is on our side”). 

Trump wants cheap gas. And cheap gas requires controlling the swing capacity and the chokepoints. That means Iran and Venezuela under the same architecture, with the Saudis and Abraham Accords members under the “aligned partner” architecture already negotiated.