The anticipation built across the weekend included "talks," "good signs," a "framework" near.

And again, nothing.

Instead, the U.S. struck Iranian sites, and Iran is now calling those strikes a violation of the ceasefire. We've seen this movie plenty of times now over the past three months.

Remember, back in my May 11 note (here), we talked about the Netanyahu interview with 60 Minutes. He said the war isn't over — "it's not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran."

Trump reiterated that last night, posting that the enriched uranium would need to be turned over and destroyed, or destroyed in place under inspection.

Until it happens, we should view the conciliatory headlines as theater, and the strikes as substance.

And the other key factor: oil.

Oil is the tool, the leverage, the revenue that funds the regime, the proxies and the weaponry. It's the lever Iran has always used to manufacture instability in the global economy.

This is why "a deal" seems unlikely. Trump has pointed, repeatedly, to Venezuela as the model. And in Venezuela the U.S. effectively controls the oil — to fund the country and restructuring, and to prevent the re-emergence of the old regime.

For Iran, this model would include taking control of Kharg Island (the terminal that moves the overwhelming majority of Iran's crude). And it's hard to imagine the current Iranian counterparts coming to any agreement like that.

For now, time does the work. The export machine continues to choke and revenue collapses. 

Let's talk about the Fed.

Kevin Warsh is on the job, sworn in Friday.

Warsh has said, repeatedly, that the Fed should talk less — less forward guidance, less telegraphing, fewer officials shaping markets with words.

Yet, what does the Fed calendar show for Warsh's first week? A long line of Fed governors with public speaking engagements. The leadership has changed. The question is, how entrenched is the culture?

We may get some signals on that this week. 

Still, as we discussed last week after Nvidia's earnings, the largest industrial buildout in modern history is underway. It's funded, profitable and accelerating. Against that tsunami, the day-to-day market noise looks like ripples on the surface.

We saw it again today — another new record high for stocks, led by AI infrastructure, and the scarce physical inputs that feed it.

We have 25 stocks in our AI-Innovation Portfolio, focused on the companies powering this AI infrastructure buildout — for what Elon has called a coming economic "tsunami." We have been positioned for it since June of 2023, but the buildout remains in the early stages. If you haven't joined us yet, you can do so here …