The ceasefire is no longer a ceasefire. And the "OPEN TO ALL" Strait of Hormuz is no longer open to all — it's under a U.S. Naval blockade.
And with that, this chart we've been watching along the course of the past five months is back to early April levels.
Remember, this is the multiple that Europeans are paying for natural gas, relative to what Americans are paying for natural gas. Six times more!
What was going on in April?
Trump had imposed a deadline on Iran, with the threat to take out every bridge and every power plant. That's exactly the threat now, again.
Where was oil back in April, when this was going on? Above $110 (WTI). It traded above $80 tonight.
With that, looking back at my early April notes (April 6th), we talked about Trump's Venezuela model for Iran: eradicate the regime, take the oil, remove the leverage.
That's been the endgame. Not a peace deal. The 46-year record tells you so. The regime has to go. Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's crude exports, has to come under American control.
We seem to be at that stage now. Trump has in recent days, explicitly said it.
Remember, the reason is bigger than Iran.
Iran is China's operational arm in the most strategically important energy region on earth. As long as the regime exists, Beijing has a partner that can selectively close Hormuz to Western shipping while keeping Chinese-bound oil flowing.
That's exactly what was happening early into this war. Iran closed the Strait to everyone except itself and its allies. No peace deal changes that architecture. Only regime removal and physical control of the oil does.
That appears to be the direction of travel: dismantle Iran's ability to create chaos in the world by weaponizing energy, and bring both Iranian and Venezuelan oil under U.S. control.
As Trump has told the world "oil is going to be cheap after this."