In 1987, Trump told Barbara Walters that the next time Iran threatened this country, America should go in, grab one of their big oil installations, and keep it.
In 1988, he told The Guardian he’d “do a number on Kharg Island” and take it. Over the weekend, he told the Financial Times that his “favorite thing [option] is to take the oil in Iran.”
This afternoon he reposted the 1987 Walters clip himself. Almost forty years later.
Safe to assume, the plan hasn’t changed since 1987. Eradicate the regime. Take the oil. Remove the leverage.
If so, this doesn’t end with a peace deal.
The Trump view on Iran has a well documented four-decade history. That view: The regime has to go. Kharg Island — which handles 90% of Iran’s crude exports — has to come under American control.
And as we discussed here in my daily notes, there’s a bigger reason than Iran.
Iran is China’s operational arm in the most strategically important energy region on earth. As long as the regime exists, Beijing has a partner that can selectively close Hormuz to Western shipping while keeping Chinese-bound oil flowing.
That’s exactly what’s happening. As you can see below (far right of the table, highlighted) Iran’s own exports rose in March, which went almost entirely to China, according to Windward (maritime intelligence). Meanwhile, Iraq and Saudi’s exports through the Gulf plunged.
So, there is no peace deal that changes the control architecture. It takes regime removal and physical control of the oil.
That’s the Venezuela model. Capture Maduro, take the oil, install a compliant successor. Iran is the same playbook at a bigger, more meaningful geopolitical scale.
And remember, Trump has told the world “oil is going to be cheap after this.”
Energy as a geopolitical weapon is being dismantled.
