The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has overshot job growth on its initial report seven consecutive months — nearly half a million jobs.

Remember, the Fed is tasked with setting policy to achieve price stability and full employment.  So, the most important data point in assessing one part of its mandate has been misleading.

And misleading reporting has been a trend, not an exception. 

And it has led to very, very costly policy mistakes.  

From the unreliable jobs data over the past several years, we've gotten reckless fiscal spending in 2021, when the economy was already running hot/ inflation was already on fire.

And then later (2023-2024), we got all of the debt from the trillions of dollars of government spending, and a devalued dollar, but only a fraction of the economic growth — because the Fed had its foot on the brake, with an inaccurate picture of the health of the economy.

And it has continued this year, leading to Fed policy that has been a headwind to pro-growth fiscal and industrial policy.

But regime change is coming at the BLS.  

Trump's nominee to head the BLS should go through Senate confirmation hearings this month. 

As for tomorrow's data, the credibility has been shot.  But the market probably reacts to weaker numbers, and likely ignores any positive surprise.