Many thanks to subscriber and friend Carol "Mickey" Norton, for having my wife and me for a White Sox game in Chicago last week.
Mickey was the first woman trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market — and at one point, one of the biggest currency traders in the world. And she is a part owner of the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Bulls, and one of a few people in the world with six NBA Championship rings and one World Series ring.
We were also fortunate to be joined by Leo Melamed, the founder of the International Monetary Market, and former Chairman and CEO of the CME. As one of the most important figures in the history of global finance, his contributions include inventing financial futures, globex and cash settlement.
These are two extraordinary American success stories. It was our great privilege to spend time with everyone, and watch a good win for the Sox!
Let's talk about the inflation data reported this morning.
As we discussed ahead of this week's CPI and PPI reports, a cooler than expected outcome would be even more consequential than usual, given the pressure Trump has put on Jerome Powell to cut rates.
That said, yesterday's CPI report ticked up, but in line with expectations.
Today's report on June producer price inflation was flat on the month, softer than expected.
Based on those inputs of CPI and PPI, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — personal consumption expenditures (PCE) — is now expected to come in at an annual change of 2.5%.
That's an uptick of a couple of tenths of a percent, and it's moving away from the Fed's 2% target.
All of that said, the Fed's efforts to condition the market to obsess over a tenth of a tick here and there are being deconstructed by the Trump sledgehammer.
The administration continues to openly discuss prospects of a new hand-selected dovish Fed Chair. And the more it's talked about, the more a "shadow Fed" policy becomes reality, and integrated into the market outlook.
