We talked yesterday about the three big developments that have taken place over the past several days.
Among them, the breakdown of the deal behind the U.S./China 90-day tariff reduction, and the resulting potential for a return to an effective embargo on trade with China.
Trump and Xi talked today.
Trump described the call as "resulting in a very positive conclusion for both countries."
The Chinese report on the call says the Geneva agreement last month was very successful and produced a good deal — and said both the U.S. and China would execute on the deal.
So, with this call today, the risk that an imminent return to peak tariffs seems to have been averted. Good news.
Still, the risks have risen in recent days on the Ukraine/Russia war, and on the U.S. budget front (more infighting, which raises the risk to getting the Trump tax cut extension across the finish line).
With those bubbling risks, the S&P 500 put in the tightest range of the year — and today, we get a technical reversal signal (an outside day).