June 27, 2023
We had some strong economic data this morning.
For the month of May, durable goods and housing data were all very strong.
And consumer confidence for this month (of June) had a big bounce back, after trending lower for much of the first half of the year.
What could fuel a technical breakout in this confidence index (i.e. restoring confidence in the economic outlook)?
>The removal of the risk of a banking crisis.
>The removal of the risk of a U.S. government debt default.
>The removal of the Fed's constant threats to destroy jobs and suppress wages.
Check, check, and check.
What else could underpin a surge in confidence?
Maybe a tsunami of yet to be deployed fiscal stimulus. And that would be even more powerful if it were to coincide with the beginning of a new industrial (digital) revolution, accompanied by productivity gains comparable to the invention of electricity (in the words of OpenAI's co-founder).
Check, and check.
With this in mind, as we've discussed here in my daily notes, we need a period of boom-time growth. We need it to inflate away the unsustainable debt load. And we need it to return GDP to long-term trend (i.e. to close the post-GFC gap, between the blue line and the orange line).
I think we have the ingredients for it.
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