April 6, 2023
Stocks are closed tomorrow for Good Friday. But we will still get the March jobs report at 8:30.
With this jobs report in mind, remember, it was mid-March that bank runs started on a few vulnerable venture capital related banks. Not only did that send shock waves through the banking sector, but it had a clear and direct blow to the technology sector.
It was safe to assume, that confidence shock had a direct and indirect effect on jobs. And we’ve already seen it reflected in some March employment data.
The ISM services employment index for March came in quite a bit weaker than the prior reading.
Wednesday’s ADP jobs report for the month of March was weak. In fact, it showed the second weakest job gains in more than two years.
And as you can see in the chart below, the six-month rolling average of jobs added in the ADP report, have been going one direction since the Fed started raising rates last year (down). This average has returned to pre-covid norms.