As you can see, price pressures in this manufacturing report are bouncing, but from low levels compared to this time last year.
On the note of recession risk: Remember, we had a recession. It was last year. And the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the first half of last year, were indeed driven by the very catalyst that many are ascribing an impending recession to: a Fed tightening cycle. The recession is not looming, it already happened.
At this point, they've already normalized interest rates, inflation has cooled, inflation expectations are tame, and the economy is on pace to put up another (consecutive) growth quarter in the 2.5% area.
And now we have the growth catalyst of China coming in, after they finally scrapped zero covid policies. The composite PMI out of China for the month of February, which measures economic activity in the manufacturing and services sector, was strong, well into expansionary territory, and above pre-covid levels.