As you can see, this big trendline in the S&P broke today.
A similar trendline in the Nasdaq also broke today.
The Dow is above the 200-day moving average, and has been for two months.
German stocks broke out of the downtrend a little more than two months ago, and now trade 27% higher (from the lows).
British stocks are just a little more than 1% off all-time highs.
And as we discussed Friday, Chinese stocks are on the move. Several catalysts have lined up to drive both domestic and global growth, not the least of which is the end of zero covid policy.
So, all of this, and we are a little more than a week away from an event that has been the sentiment spoiler for much of the past year: another Fed meeting.
Since August, the Fed has made a clear effort, through rate hikes, guidance and threats, to tighten financial conditions. And yet, the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (which measures credit, risk and leverage) is just about where it was when the Fed started raising interest rates.
And if you look at a chart of that index (below), you can see what today's level looks like (far right on the chart), relative to the levels in each of the past seven recessions (indicated by the shaded gray areas). It's not close to looking like recession.