Yesterday we discussed the very well placed Fedex warning.
Not only was it unnecessary to pre-announce seven days before a schedule earnings call, but moreover, the Fedex CEO thought he needed to deliver a warning on the global economy.
Again, this act looks like it may have created cover for the Fed to under-deliver next week. If that’s the case, we probably have more tumult for markets going into Wednesday’s Fed decision.
Then, anything less than 75 basis points combined with a zealously hawkish tone would be a positive surprise for markets.
That’s a big event ahead. Let’s talk about the bigger event ahead. The November elections.
Below is a look at the model projections from FiveThirtyEight.