We've talked a lot about the Fed's "tough talk" strategy. They've gone from denying inflation less than a year ago (which people believed), to banging the drum about "expeditious rate hikes" (which people believe).
None of which have been accurate.
We have 8%+ inflation and just a 1.6% effective Fed Funds rate.
Still, the Fed has successfully talked the economy down, without having to make meaningful adjustments to interest rates.
By verbally attacking demand, the Fed has flipped the conversation from an inflationary boom, to a recession.
They've induced a bear market in stocks, and a related "negative net worth effect." And they've promoted layoffs, by explicitly threatening to loosen the tight job market.
With that the Atlanta Fed is now projecting the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. That's recession.