Pro Perspectives 7/7/21

July 7, 2021

The minutes from the last Fed meeting came in today with no surprises. 

They are methodically and delicately informing us that the punch bowl will not always have an unlimited bottom.

But telegraphing a bottom/end in their QE forever program is far from hawkish, considering they see an economy growing  at 7% this year, unemployment falling to 4.5% (historically a level consider to be "full employment"), and inflation running at 3.4% (right around the long-term average).

With this view, they should be ending emergency policies, if not raising rates today, yet they continue to have the pedal to the metal on monetary policy. 

As such, the Fed continues to look like a tool of the White House.

The White House and Congress continue to plan and roll out fiscal extravagance (unabashedly growing the debt).  And the Fed continues to inflate the nominal price of everything, and inflate away the value of debt.

We know a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure spend is coming.  That will only further inflate the nominal growth of the economy, and further tighten the labor market.  Still, Biden is out today pitching his "Build Back Better" plan which includes many more "relief" handouts.  

He called today for an extension of "child tax credits" through 2025!  This means a family earning around the median income will end up paying no federal income tax.  And it's not really a credit.  It's a direct payment. It’s cash.  And it's not really a "tax" credit, as those that do not pay taxes, receive and will continue to receive direct payments. 

Bottom line, the direct payment "stimulus" has been masked as covid relief, but has always been a strategic play to ram through universal income.  This will continue to push wages higher, create labor shortages and inflation