Pro Perspectives 6/14/21
June 14, 2021
The G7 leaders wrapped up their meeting on Sunday. In my last note, we talked about the significance of these meetings, especially in crisis periods (if you didn’t see that note, you can find it here).
So, what did we learn from the G7 communique that could impact markets?
We learned that the G7 leaders are all-in on the climate and equality movement. With the global economy coming out of one of the worst crises in history, the communique mentioned the economy only 17 times. It mentioned equality 22 times. And it mentioned either climate or “green” 51 times.
Additionally, it had just four carefully positioned unprovocative mentions of China.
What does it all mean for markets? As I said on Friday, if there was any doubt that there is coordination and agreement among global leaders on the social and environmental agenda, there is no doubt now.
So, while the global leaders in each of these major developed market countries have indeed vowed to continue supporting the economy, it will be following the gameplan of “future growth,” not crisis response (in their words).
What does that tell us? It tells us that they will allow some economic pain (a continuation of, if not newly established pain), in the name of future growth. We can get a glimpse of what that looks like through the treatment of the fossil fuels industry. Jobs have been lost and prices have soared, all in the name of future growth (i.e. a complete transformation of global energy).
With this in mind, let’s consider what the Fed has been telling us about inflation. It’s “transitory,” they say. They may be right, if policy makers are planning to tear down, in order to “build back better.”