Pro Perspectives 3/8/21

March 8, 2021

As expected, the Senate passed the $1.9 trillion spending package over the weekend.  This has been a done deal since the Georgia Senate run-off installed two democrat Senators in early January.    

As we discussed on Friday, the dollar will be key to watch as this bill officially becomes law.  The question is: Will foreign investors begin punishing this blatantly profligate deficit spending? 

The risk is that foreign investors sell our Treasuries and sell the dollar. So far, not yet.  Interest rates (bonds) were tame today. And the dollar was up. 

What is moving, is the favored "store of value" for global money over the past few years:  big tech stocks.  They are on the move, lower.  And the technical picture is looking ugly.  

Let's take a look at some charts …

First, here's a look at the S&P 500.  This yellow line represents the very clean uptrend from the March lows of last year, manufactured by government and central bank intervention.  This line broke last week, recovered today, but closes right on the big line. 

This picture of broader stocks looks vulnerable, especially when you consider the technical picture of some big constituent stocks of the index…  

Facebook is down 16% from the highs, and is trading below the 200-day moving average (bearish). 

Amazon is down 17% from the highs and trades below the 200-day moving average (bearish).  

Apple is down 20% from the highs (a technical "bear market" for Apple), and is approaching the 200-day moving average. 

And Tesla, isn't looking good — down 37% from the highs of late January and sitting on a key trendline here.  A move down to the 200-day moving average would represent a 47% drawdown, in what has been the world's investment manifestation of the global clean energy transformation.  Money is moving out

Where will this money (from big tech exits) go? 

So far, plenty is finding a home in value stocks.  Will some of this money plow into our Treasuries, at an attractive interest rate (1.6% on the ten-year) relative to the rest of the world?  Or will this money leave the dollar?  We will see.