September 29, 2020
With the big debate tonight, let's take a look at the topics they will attempt to address, amongst the mudslinging.
Here is my guess as to how it goes:
Topic #1: Trump and Biden track records.
Trump: I've delivered on my promises. Biden: You inherited our economy.
Topic #2: The Supreme Court
Trump: I'm just following the Constitution. Biden: You’re a hypocrite.
Topic #3: Covid-19
Trump: I shut down the country, sent a ship to NYC, got emergency use authorization for treatments, brought private and public together to develop a vaccine in record time. Biden: 200,000 have died.
Topic #4: The economy
Trump: We had the best economy ever. And it will be better than ever next year. We got money into the hands of people, kept companies alive, and the economy is in a V-shaped recovery. Biden: You presided over the worst economic contraction in American history.
Topic #5: Race and Violence in our cities
Trump: You stoked this. Biden: You encouraged this.
Topic #6: The integrity of the election
Trump: The democrats are rigging it with mail-in ballot fraud. Biden: Trump has tried to rig the election by cutting postal service resources.
That’s how I see it. I suspect, Trump will be far more verbose. I suspect Biden will not. Everything else (before, in between, and following) will be what moves the needle (the attacks, and the retorts).
Now, let's take a look back at the Trump/Clinton debates for clues on what markets did surrounding these debates, and into the election.
Back in 2016, stocks finished up the day after each of the first two debates. And in the day after the last debate, stocks were flat.
As we know, the polls didn't reflect the reality throughout. As I look through them, Clinton was considered the unanimous winner in all of the polls, in each of the debates. And of course, you can see the big swing in the stock futures on election night, as the market digested a big surprise.