September 10, 2020
With 53 days until the election, as we discussed on Tuesday, we have a vacuum to be filled with uncertainty and speculation.
That's a formula for choppy markets. That's what we're getting.
Let's take a look at how the election is sizing up …
Despite the reports that the polls have swung in recent weeks to a very tight race, Reuters still has it at a seven point spread in Biden's favor. The FT has it a eight points.
In the Reuters surveys, a "robust plan for covid" leads the list of determining factors for choosing the next President. Second is restoring trust in the government. And third is "strong on the economy."
Safe to assume there's a solid bias in all of these polls, given the media's position on Trump ("coverage bias"), and given the propensity of Trump supporters to decline a survey (nonresponse bias).
If a "robust plan for covid" is top of the list, and the virus were indeed consider "a war", then history is on Trump's side. Remember, incumbent Presidents, when they’ve actively sought a second term in war time, have a 6–0 record.
For now, markets seem to be numb to the daily anti-Trump "bombshells" delivered by the media, on a loop. The debates (assuming they happen) will be where the needle gets moved.
Here's a look at that schedule …