Pro Perspectives 4/23/20

April 23, 2020

Over the past couple of weeks, we've talked about the key data coming from New York on the virus, which has suggested that something (a treatment) is working.

Let's take a look at the latest …

In Cuomo's daily presser, he's been showing charts of hospitalizations, which peaked about two weeks ago. 

And he's been showing this, most important, chart on daily intubations.


We've now had 11 consecutive days of declines in intubations. Less people have been getting to the severe stage, and therefore less people are being intubated.  And that has translated into less deaths.  The daily deaths have nearly halved over the past two weeks. 

Meanwhile it has been almost a month since New York hospitals were cleared to use a few treatment options (among them the generic hydroxychloroquine and Gilead’s Remdesivir).  And some notable trials on those treatments are due to be reported any day (should have been much sooner).  There was a report last night, that results on a hydroxychloroquine trial have been submitted and sit with the New York board of health.

Additionally, Cuomo said today that an antibody test on 3,000 New Yorkers showed a 14% infection rate (of those that didn't know they had it, assumably).  In New York City, the number was 21%.  That's big news. That would extrapolate out to about 1.7 million people that have the antibodies (have been infected and recovered) in New York City.  

If positive results come in from these trials, and we now know the death rate is likely far lower (around 0.5% of infected), and the infected and recovered rate is far higher, then the timeline on the health crisis could be far shorter than what has been anticipated (from a global health, global economic and markets perspective). 

On that note, much of this has been a sideshow in the bigger narrative, as the focus has been on a vaccine (which is a long timeline – a devastating timeline for the economy).  The reality:  We may never have a vaccine for this, just as we haven't for other deadly viruses.  But the data is building in the direction of a more manageable virus and more favorable outcome than what was projected.