Pro Perspectives 4/7/20

April 7, 2020

There is a perception that New York is the canary in the coal mine, as it relates to the virus.

But as we’ve discussed in my notes, it has a better chance of being the turning point for the health crisis. 

Why?  Because it has been a real-world test for what a severe, resource constraining outbreak looks like.  And they have been throwing everything at it.  That includes lockdowns. And that includes experimental treatment options

So in a world where scientists have had a lack of evidence to evaluate treatment options for a novel virus.  We’re getting evidence, in real-time. 

If they didn’t like the merits of the various studies in China and Europe (on hydroxychloroquine), or the anecdotal attestations of recovered patients, they now have an 1,100 patient clinical trial running in New York – for more than a week.  Moreover, they have a much larger “anecdotal” pool to evaluate, after the treatment was made an option available for doctors to prescribe around the country.  

With this in mind, we’ve been waiting to hear results on what has become highly politicized drug.  There has been a deafening silence on that reporting.

But the raw data coming out of New York may be giving us the news directly.

Here are two of the most important charts I’ve seen on this virus to date. 

New York daily ICU admissions are down three straight days — into just double digits! And daily intubations are down two straight days, from over 300 to 69.

Do these charts mean there is success in treating patients? If patients are being treated successfully, they don’t require ICU – they don’t require a ventilator.

As we’ve discussed, positive developments on the treatment front would be a major turning point, and provide light at the end of the tunnel for the health crisis and for the economy. 

These will be the key data to watch in the coming days. As for markets, remember just a week ago, a treatment solution wasn’t even on the radar of most market participants.  That has been the potential “positive surprise” we’ve been discussing.  We will see.