Yesterday we revisited my contrarian thesis on the state of the economy. 

Most believe we are in the late stages of the country’s longest economic expansion.  I would argue that we’re in the early stages a real economic expansion (driven by fiscal stimulus and structural reform), coming out of a decade long depression-like era, buffered only by trillions of dollars of central bank intervention.

The glaring evidence?  The performance of commodities over the past decade (and inflation) — both dead.

Expect this to change.  Soon.  With tailwinds of central banks (all with the pedal to the metal), fiscal stimulus (in the U.S., Japan and soon to come in Europe), a rebalancing of global trade, and a record strong consumer, I suspect the inflation heartbeat is about to be resuscitated.

With this backdrop, expect commodities to make a big comeback.  And by the end of next year, the question will be, can the Fed manage a hot economy, without killing the boom.

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