Pro Perspectives 9/16/19

September 16, 2019

The Fed meets on Wednesday.  On Friday the market was pricing in a 78% chance of a quarter point cut.  Today it's pricing in a 63% chance? 

Why?  Oil prices. 

With the Iranian attack on Saudi oil supply on Saturday, oil prices popped as much as 15% when futures markets opened last night. 

While the Fed likes to say they exclude volatile energy prices from their assessment of inflation, their behavior says otherwise.  When oil prices move sharply, they tend to react.  With that, we have a shock to global oil supply, and that has some predicting much higher oil prices.  If that were to play out, we should expect the Fed to get nervous about inflation.  

But I suspect we'll see oil prices, first, go the other way. 

This all looks like the timeline is setting up for a rate cut, a cut-down China deal, and then the U.S. greenlighting an attack on Iran. 

What happened to oil prices when we invaded Iraq in 2003.  Prices first went down, big. 

Here's a look at the 2003-2004 crude oil chart  …

What went up on the Iraq war catalyst?  

Gold went up 25% over the next year …

And stocks went up 45% over the next year …