Pro Perspectives 8/23/19

August 23, 2019

Throughout the post-financial crisis era, there have been some major policy signals given from the Fed at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

Tomorrow will be another big one. 

Jay Powell will need to deliver a message that shows a clear willingness to ease more aggressively, even if it appears to be a pre-emptive strike on an economy that is currently doing fine. 

Inflation is soft.   And we have growing prospects (in the past month) of an indefinite U.S./China trade war.  The Fed has room (the interest rate market thinks a lot of room) to be positioned more aggressively. 

If we get these signals from Powell tomorrow, stocks should be on their way to a very big year (similar to 1995).  And with the aggressive positioning from global central banks in the past month, including signals from the ECB that they will restart QE next month, gold should (continue to) be among the biggest winners by year end. 

As we head into tomorrow's big event the S&P 500 is up 16.5% year-to-date.  Gold is up almost 18% (ytd).  

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