With Fog Lifting, The Real Economic Boom May Be Just Getting Started

April 5, 5:00 pm EST

As we end the week, the overhang of risks to markets, the Trump administration and the economy are as light as we’ve seen in quite some time.

With that, stocks are back within sniffing distance of record highs.  And I suspect it’s just getting started.

Remember, we’ve talked a lot about the comparisons between today and 1995.  But we should also acknowledge how things played out through 2000, after the Fed backtracked on errant policy in the mid-90s.

Let’s revisit an excerpt from my daily notes on the topic …

“Last year (2018) was the first year since 1994 that cash was the best producing major asset class (among stocks, real estate, bonds, gold). The culprit for such an anomaly: An overly aggressive Fed, tightening into a low inflation, recovering economy. 

The Fed ended up cutting rates by 1995, and that spurred a huge run up in stocks (up 36%). Fast forward: we now (too) have a Fed that has been overly aggressive, tightening into a low inflation, recovering economy. And just as they did in 1995, the Fed is now doing an about face. Given where the Fed has positioned itself now, compared to just three months ago, I would argue we already have a repeat of 1995 from the Fed … Within a few quarters of the 1995 rate cut, U.S. growth was printing above 4% and did so for 18 consecutive months. Stocks TRIPLED over that period.”

So, just as people are arguing that the expansion cycle of the past decade is coming to an end, we may very well see that the real boom is just getting started.

We continue to have tailwinds of fiscal policy, deregulation and structural reform still working through the economy.  And the Fed has now given us the greenlight, with policies designed to fuel higher stock prices!

These are the moments when real wealth can be created in stocks. I want to make sure you are acting, not watching from the sidelines.

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