Have We Hit ‘Peak Zuck’?
July 27, 5:00 pm EST
As we end the week, let’s take a look at a few charts ….
We had the first look at Q2 GDP today. Here’s an updated look at the chart of the average four-quarter annualized growth rate we looked at
This number will be formally revised two more times, but the “advance” number came in at 4.1%. Yesterday we talked about the prospects for the highest four-quarter annualized growth rate since 2006. We just missed it, in this first reading. But the Q1 number was revised UP to 2.2%, so adding in today’s Q2 number, and we get 3.1% four-quarter average annualized growth. Only for a moment, in 2010, was it better (at 3.15%).
I suspect we will see a bigger number in the coming Q2 revisions. And if sentiment on trade indeed bottomed out on Wednesday, with the EU concessions, we will likely have a big Q3 growth number coming.
That steadily rising trend, since the election, in the four-quarter average growth rate is a big deal. With that, I would call the above chart, the most important chart of the week…
Let’s look at the second most important chart of the week ….
I’ve been making the case that the massive Nasdaq outperformance, relative to the Dow, would begin correcting. In the chart above, you can see that it’s starting (Dow moving up, Nasdaq moving down). And it’s being led by strength in the blue chips following strong Q2 earnings, and weakness in two of the big tech giants (Netflix and Facebook) following big misses. With that, Facebook has quickly revisited levels of early May (which should give us all perspective on how aggressive this run in the tech giants has been over the past two months).
The question: Is it “peak Zuck?”
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