Oil And Commodities Ready For Next Leg Higher?


May 11, 2017, 4:00pm EST                                                                                       Invest Alongside Billionaires For $297/Qtr

Oil has been on the move the past few days.  Was this recent dip a gift to buy?The oil inventory report yesterday showed a big drawdown on oil inventories.  The market expectation was for about a drawdown of 1.5 million barrels. It came in at 5 million.

may11 oil 3

That has oil on a big bounce for the week. It’s trading about 8% higher than it was at the lows of last Friday.  But we still sit below the 200 day moving average and below the key $50 level (the comfort zone for those producers, namely the shale industry, to fire back up idle capacity).

​The weakness in oil has a lot to do with weakness across broader commodities.  And broader commodities typically correlates well with what Chinese stocks are doing.

may11 commodities 2

You can see in the chart above, how closely the two track.  This bottom in commodities has/had everything to do with the outlook for a big infrastructure spend out of the Trump administration.  It’s yet to bubble up toward the top of the action list.  With that, the momentum has either stalled on this trade, or it’s a pause before another leg higher in this early stage multi-year rebound. My bet is on the latter.
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