The Wild Extremes Of Fed Rate Hike Expectations


July 21, 2016, 4:00pm EST

The ECB meeting came and went this morning without moving the needle in global markets.  And that has left the very important German 10 year yield, as we discussed last Friday, straddling the zero line.

Next up is the Fed, on Wednesday of next week.  And shortly following the Fed decision will be the biggie:  The Bank of Japan.

As for the Fed, for perspective on how wild the swings in sentiment have been, just 16 days ago, the U.S. 10 year yield was trading at 1.35%, lower than the darkest days of the global financial crisis (much lower), and the darkest days of the European Debt Crisis.

Expectations on the next rate hike had been moved out, at that point, as far as 2018 in the minds of market participants – and the market began to even price in slim chances of a cut.

And as we said in our July 5 note, “the last time yields made record lows around those levels, what turned it? It was intervention – or at least the threat of intervention. It was the ECB stepping in and saying they would do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the euro.”

Not surprisingly, global yields bounced just days after the reaching new record lows, earlier this month, on news that Japan was planning on rolling out a big fiscal stimulus package (i.e. intervention).

As we said, despite all of the criticisms surrounding policymakers meddling in markets, intervention (in one shape or form) has determined many historic turning points in markets – something to keep in mind.

The market is now pricing in a little less than a coin flips chance of a hike this year from the Fed.  That’s up from a 13% chance just 16 days ago.

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