We've talked in recent weeks about the "Venezuela model" as the ultimate outcome for Iran.
Take the Iranian oil. Sell it at market rates. The money goes into a U.S. Treasury-controlled account — removing the revenue lifeblood from the regime, reserving the money for reconstruction, and the U.S. controlling key global oil supply in the process.
Rubio detailed the mechanism at the cabinet meeting a couple of weeks ago. Then both Rubio and Bessent described their half of the architecture, in their respective congressional testimonies last week.
Today Trump said it explicitly. He said in the not too distant future, the U.S. would take Kharg Island (the terminal behind roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports) and "assume total control of their oil and gas markets, much like we have with Venezuela."
The oil can flow, but not on the old terms, and not back to the old hands.
So, a deal, in this framework, doesn't mean withdrawal. It means control.
And with that, this afternoon, Trump announced (yet another) "deal" is near …
This cancellation of more strikes resulted in yet another relief episode for markets — another sentiment massage (stocks up, yields down, oil down).
Notice within this post, the coalition of countries Trump named: the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt.
Notice Europe wasn't mentioned. The energy shock that just drove the ECB to a rate hike this morning is being negotiated without their participation.
With that, let's revisit this excerpt from my May 19 note…
Scott Bessent was in Paris, delivering the keynote at the No Money for Terror conference. He told the room of global policymakers and financiers this:
"The United States is hardly alone in facing the scourge of terrorism, especially from Iran. Yet, too often, we seem to be alone in our resolve to thwart it."
He then called on Europe, by name, to take action and expose Iran's financing networks — unmask shell and front companies, shutter bank branches, dismantle proxies.
And he called on partners in the Middle East and Asia to root out Iran's shadow banking networks (the China-Iran financial pipeline).
But this "alone in our resolve" statement was clearly aimed at Europe, along with "no room for excuses."
We've talked about the Trump plan to restructure global trade and realign the world (away from China, back toward the U.S.), anchored by "burden sharing" — where allies and trading partners pay for access to safety (U.S. security guarantees), stability (the dollar and U.S. capital markets), and markets (U.S. consumers).
These are all no longer automatic, but conditional — conditional based upon alignment.
And Bessent is making it clear that alignment includes: designate, expose, shutter, and dismantle Iran's financing.
Or, stay ambiguous, as Europe has to this point, and discover what "conditional" looks like in practice.
And we've talked about the levers that Trump, Bessent and the new Fed Chair can pull to force political alignment — through consequence, not argument.
With this, "force political alignment through consequence" tactic in mind: If a "deal" on Iran is coming, it still wouldn't resolve the energy shock for Europe soon enough. Qatari LNG wouldn't normalize for years. And the ECB's own staff admitted last week that energy pass-through to utility bills takes "several months."
And with Kharg on the table, relief for Europe runs through Washington. U.S. LNG and crude, Iranian barrels through a Treasury architecture, Qatari volumes returning.
Fair to say, relief comes with alignment.
Don't forget, Europe sits on the Trump-imposed July 4th deadline for a trade deal.
