My Final Four Picks and Potential Upsets


As many of you know I have a strong background in Economics and Statistics and as a side hobby I like to use my quantitative and statistical skills to predict sporting events such as the NCAA Basketball Tournament/Final Four.

In trying to predict the Final Four I used economic regression models and Monte Carlo simulations. In layman’s terms I used all of the past data from all of the teams involved in The NCAA Tournament, I then ran a series of quantitative models that told me which data points have the highest predictability, examples of data points that have high predictability are: the average age of the starting 5 for each basketball team, the teams road record and the teams free throw shooting percentage.

Then I ran all this data through a series of tests and simulations which gave me a weighting percentage for each team. The higher the team’s weighting percentage the more likely they are to win The 2013 NCAA College Basketball Tournament

So with all that being said here are the predictions from my model.

The final four: Louisville, University of Florida, Ohio State and Miami Hurricanes. The winner will be Louisville.

The teams most likely to pull a first round upset, Florida Gulf Coast University, University of Mississippi, Iowa State and Davidson.

Will Meade
Editor of the Billionaires Portfolio