Trade War Can Kicked Down The Road

By Bryan Rich

July 1,  5:00 pm EST

Predictably, Trump extended the timeline on new tariffs in his meeting with China’s President Xi over the weekend.

This is kicking the trade war can down the road. That extends the timeline on the trade war and resets the opportunity to force the Fed’s hand this coming month–to get a rate cut at the July 30-31 Fed meeting.

As we’ve discussed, with a rate cut under his belt, this would clear the way for Trump to, then, claim victory on the China trade war by doing ‘a’ deal, giving himself enough runway into the 2020 elections to have a booming stock market and booming economy.

Since December, we’ve been talking about the parallels between the current period and the 1994-1995 period. It’s worth repeating again. The script continues to play out. In 1994, an overly aggressive Fed raised rates into a recovering, low inflation economy. By 1995, they were cutting. That led to a 36% rise in stocks in 1995. And it led to 4% growth in the economy through late 2000–18 consecutive quarters of more than 4% growth. Stocks tripled over the five-year period.

Think about that, and then remove the overhang of a trade war with the two biggest economies of the world and you can see the path to some very good times ahead. Moreover, if the above scenario plays out, Trump would then likely turn back to Congress and green-light a $2 trillion infrastructure plan.

While many have been predicting economic bust, this is a formula for an economic boom!