Smells Like Something’s Cooking On The China Front

By Bryan Rich

June 7,  5:00 pm EST

We had the jobs report this morning. As we discussed on Wednesday, the weak ADP report was telegraphing a “below expectations” government jobs report.

Indeed, that’s what we got this morning.

And, while a bad job number is typically seen as bad news for stocks, in a world where the Fed has been on the hot seat to deliver a rate cut, it increases the likelihood of that happening. A rate cut is fuel for stocks, and with that, stocks continued the very strong bounceback, closing near the highs of the week.

What problems would a rate cut solve? It would mostly improve sentiment. A yield curve inversion has been spooking markets now for a while (as it has a record of predicting recessions). Perhaps contrary to what some may think, a rate cut by the Fed should steepen the yield curve. It would not only lower the front end of the curve (shorter term rates), but likely increase longer term rates by improving sentiment (i.e. higher long-term rates on the optimism that the Fed isn’t going to kill the economy through overly-tight monetary policy).

Now, while stocks have continued with a very persistent march higher this week, gold has also marched higher, and the dollar has fallen, and rates have remained near dead lows. What’s going on?

Is it the threat of tariffs hitting Mexico on Monday? I don’t think so. Stocks have well recovered and surpassed the levels prior to Trump’s tweet that threatened Mexico.

There may be something bigger happening.

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at this technical reversal signal in the dollar (chart below) and talked about the prospects of the trade war with China ending in a grand and coordinated currency agreement. The dollar has since been on the move (lower).

What do I mean by a currency agreement? There are a lot of similarities between the U.S/China standoff and that of U.S. and Japan in the 1980s. That was ended with the “Plaza Accord” — an agreement between the U.S., Japan, Germany, England and France. The Plaza Accord was a plan to balance global trade, through a 50% depreciation of the dollar (vs. the yen and d-mark).

As I said a couple of weeks ago, we may wake up one day and find a similar agreement has been made between the U.S. and major global trading partners (which may include China, or not). It might be a deal between the U.S. and China to “revalue” the yuan (i.e. strengthen it). Or it may exclude China (just G3 economies). With the behavior in markets the past few days, it smells like something is cooking.