Newsflash: OPEC is still cutting

By Bryan Rich

June 29, 5:00 pm EST

Last week, we talked a lot about oil, as OPEC was meeting to deliberate on the status of their agreement to cut production.

While oil prices have been rising aggressively over the past year, the markets haven’t been paying a lot of attention — distracted by Trump watching.

But then Trump put it on the front burner, with another jab at OPEC on Twitter.  And the media and Wall Street began trying to deduce the OPEC outcome.  In the end, they misinterpreted.  OPEC’s agreement to go from overcutting to complyingwith the initial levels of production cuts, means they are still cutting.

So, the market is still undersupplied in a world where demand has proven to be underestimated.  That’s a formula for higher prices.

That’s what we’ve had for the past year, and that’s what we’ve gotten since OPEC’s official statement on Friday.  In my note last Friday, I said “the lack of enough action from OPEC may serve as a catalyst to push oil much higher from here.  That, of course, serves OPEC’s interests.”

Oil prices have exploded!  We’ve seen a $10 pop since Friday morning.  That’s 15% in a week.  And I suspect it’s going to keep going.

Remember, we’ve talked about the prospects for $100 oil this year.  Leigh Goehring, one of the best research-driven commodities investors on the planet has been telling us that since last year.  And he’s looking spot-on at the moment.

Bottom line:  This script is precisely what we’ve been talking about, here in my daily Pro Perspectives note, since the price of oil was in the $40s. We’ve talked about the prospects for a return to $80 oil, and maybe even as high as $100 oil.  And it looks more and more possible, given the surging demand and the supply shortfall.

How can you play it.  On this thesis for oil, in my Billionaire’s Portfolio, we added SPDR Oil and Gas ETF (symbol XOP) and Phillips 66 (symbol PSX) back when oil prices were deeply depressed (in 2016).  We followed the activism of policymakers (both central banks and OPEC).  And in the case of PSX, we also followed Warren Buffett.   

Both are up big, but have a lot more room to run. Oil and gas stocks (which comprise the XOP) have yet to reflect the supply shortfall in the oil market, much less the booming demand that is coming from an improving global economy (which many have underestimated).

If you haven’t joined the Billionaire’s Portfolio, where you can look over my shoulder and follow my hand selected 20-stock portfolio of the best billionaire owned and influenced stocks, you can join me here.