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April 18, 5:00 pm EST Yesterday we talked about the positive surprises in the Chinese data. This is important because the global slowdown fears have been centered around the weak Chinese economy. So, we now have what looks like a bounce off of the bottom in Chinese industrial output and Chinese retail sales (two key indicators of economic health). Today we had more positive surprises for the global economic outlook picture. The UK retail sales number came in better than expected. And the U.S. retail sales came in better. You can see in the chart below, this March U.S. retail sales is a bounce from the post-crisis lows of December. |
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With this, the Q1 GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed has bumped up to 2.8%. We’ve talked about the set up for both earnings and the economic data to surprise to the upside for Q1, given the dialed down expectations following the December decline in stocks. You can see how this is playing out in the chart below (see where the gold line is diverging from the “consensus estimate” blue line) … |
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