Trump’s Secretary Of State Pick Might Be Brilliant

By Bryan Rich 

December 13, 2016, 4:00pm EST

Last week we talked about how a visit to Trump Tower was becoming a good predictor of a success for your stock.

Goldman continues to build representation in the Trump administration with the latest addition, Gary Cohn (current COO and President of Goldman Sachs) as the National Economic Council Director.  And hedge funder Anthony Scaramucci, a Goldman Sachs alum and current member of the Trump transition team, is rumored to be in the running for a role in the administration.  Goldman’s stock continues to rise, as the best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial average since Election Day (up 31%).

And remember, we talked about the visit last week of Masayoshi Son, the Japanese billionaire and majority stake holder in Sprint.  Sprint is up 32% since election day.

So now we have the latest, and one of the most important cabinet appointments, Rex Tillerson, who will be Secretary of State. He’s the Chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil, the biggest energy company in the country and one of the largest publicly traded companies. Exxon was up 2% today, and is up 9% since the election — better than the broader market, but not quite as good as the stocks of some other Trump Tower visitors.

This is a very interesting pick.  Given that the President-elect has openly talked about using oil as an economic weapon (on Iraq… “we should have taken the oil”). We now have one of the world’s most respected experts in oil, and in negotiating around oil, charged with stabilizing the middle east and relations with Russia (to name a few). And given that the hot spot of global instability surrounds countries (or regimes) that are highly dependendent on oil revenue (funded by oil revenue), we have a guy that could credibly utilize leverage emerging U.S. supply, and global demand of the developed world, as a bargaining chip.   His appointment/presence may also end up yielding a stable oil price environment going forward (tempering the manipulation of price extremes by OPEC).

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