Oil Market At The Tipping Point

By Bryan Rich 

October 10, 2017, 3:00 pm EST

BR caricatureCrude oil was the biggest mover of the day across global markets, up almost 3%, and back above the $50 level.

Though oil has been stuck, oscillating around this $50 mark for some time, we’ve talked about the prospects for much higher oil prices.  So, when?

Remember, back in May I spoke with one of the best research-driven commodities funds on the planet, led by the star commodities investor Leigh Goehring and his long-time research head Adam Rozencwajg.  They do some of the most thorough supply/demand work on oil and broader commodities.

Earlier this year, they were pounding the table on the fundamental case for $100 oil again.  Since then, as oil prices haven’t complied.  With that, we’ve seen Andy Hall’s departure from the market, of one of the biggest oil bulls, and one of the best and most successful tactical traders of oil in the world.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals have continued to build in favor of much
higher oil prices.  We’ve seen supply drawdown for the better part of the past seven months – to the tune of more than $60 million barrels of oil taken out of the market.

I checked back in with Goehring and Rozencwajg and they are now more bullish than before.  They say demand is raging, supply is faltering, and the world has overestimated what the shale industry is capable of producing – and the market is leaning, heavily, the wrong way (i.e. “maximum bearishness”).  They think we’ve now hit the tipping point for prices – where we will see the price of oil accelerate.

They’re calling for $75-$110 oil by early next year, based on their historical analysis of price and inventory levels.

We’ll talk more about their work on the oil market in the coming days, and their very interesting work on the broader commodities markets – both of which support the themes we’ve been discussing in recent months.