New Long-Term Bear Cycle For The Dollar Is Here

By Bryan Rich 

June 28, 2017, 4:00 pm EST                                                                               Invest Alongside Billionaires For $297/Qtr

 

BR caricatureYesterday we talked about the Draghi remarks (head of the European Central Bank) that were intended to set expectations that the ECB might be moving toward the exit doors on QE and zero interest rate policy.  That bottomed out global rates — which popped U.S. rates further today.  The Bank of England piled on today, talking about rate normalization soon.

We’ve gone from 2.12% in the U.S. ten year yield to 2.25% in about 24 hours.  These are big swings in the interest rate market – a big bounce and, as I’ve said, the bottom appears to be in for rates.

As importantly, this prepared speech by Draghi could very well cement the top in the dollar.  It begins to tighten a very wide interest rate spread between the U.S. and global rates.  We entered the year with the Fed going one way (tightening) while the rest of the world was going the other way (easing).  That’s a recipe for capital to storm into U.S. assets — into the dollar.  And now that may be over.

I’ve been researching long-term cycles in the dollar for a very long time and throughout the global financial crisis period, it these cycles in the world’s reserve currency have been my guidepost for drawing a lot of conclusions on markets and the outlook for capital flows over the past several years.

Despite the choppiness in the dollar for much of the crisis, if we look back at the cycles following the failure of the Bretton Woods system, we were able, very early on, to determine the dollar was in a bull cycle.

This view came in the face of all of the negative global sentiment toward the dollar in 2010.  Foreign leaders were taking shots at the Fed, accusing the Fed of trying to destroy the dollar.  People were calling for the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. All the while, the dollar held firm and ultimately made an aggressive climb.

Take a look below at my chart on the long term dollar cycles…

june 28 dollar cycles lt

I’ve watched this chart for quite some time, defining the five complete dollar cycles over the past nearly 40 years, and the most recent bull cycle.

If we mark the top of the most recent cycle in early January, this bull cycle has matched the longest cycle in duration (at 8.8 years) and comes in just shy of the long-term average performance of the five complete cycles.  The most recent bull cycle added 47%.  The average change over a long term cycle has been 56%.  This all argues that the dollar bull cycle is over.  And a weaker dollar is ahead.  That should go over very well with the Trump administration.

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