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February 20, 2024

We get Nvidia Q4 earnings tomorrow after the close.
 
Remember, it was on the Q1 earnings call, nine months ago, that Nvidia's CEO shocked the world declaring "the beginning of a major technology era."  He told us there was a "rebirth of the computer industry" underway, where "AI has reinvented computing from the ground up."

 
And he told us there was a "retooling" going on across the economy, the beginning of a 10-year transition of the world's $1 trillion data center, to accelerated computing.
 
And he had the numbers to back it up.  They grew revenues by 19% in Q1 compared to just the prior quarter, and they guided to 52% growth for Q2 (shockingly huge).  From the "steep" data center demand, they expected revenues to jump from $7.2 billion to $11 billion in just one quarter.  They did $13.5 billion. 
 
They expected revenues to jump to $16 billion for Q3.  They did $18.1 billion. 
 
Their guidance for tomorrow is $20 billion (in Q4 revenue).  Here's what this revenue growth in the Nvidia data center business looks like, which is more than 80% of the Nvidia business now …
 
 
So, with this hyper-growth of the past three quarters, there are two things that have built into market expectations for tomorrow's report (which led to some profit taking today):  1) Government imposed export restrictions during the period, which will affect about a quarter of Nvidia's data center revenue (mostly China).  And, 2) the pressure on Nvidia to continue delivering the capacity to meet what is said to be insatiable demand.
 
That said, the former likely helped with the latter (the export controls likely relieved some pressure on capacity).
 
How expensive is Nvidia stock?  If we use last quarter's net income margin of 51%, hitting the revenue number in Q4 will deliver more than $10 billion in net income in the quarter.  On that annual run rate, it would value the stock at about 43 times earnings not terribly expensive for a company that has three consecutive quarters of triple-digit year-over-year growth, and at least another one coming (next quarter).  
 
More importantly, we should expect Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) to educate the world in tomorrow's earnings call, on the status and next waves of the technology revolution. 

 

 

 

 

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February 15, 2024

The sharp moves in stocks, bonds and the dollar, following Tuesday's inflation report, have fully retraced.
 
Remember, we looked at this big trendline support in the Nasdaq on Tuesday afternoon (similar line in the S&P 500).  
 
 
This technical support held beautifully.  It was a level to buy the overreaction, not sell.  Clearly the demand was strong to buy even a shallow dip in the stocks leading the technology revolution.
 
Speaking of leading the way, here's a look at how Nvidia traded on the open after the Tuesday inflation report.  
 
 
After the opening gap down, Nvidia shares were bought aggressively.  The dip didn't last long.
 
Nvidia reports next Wednesday.   
 
And rebounding most aggressively, since Tuesday, has been the equal-weighted S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.  Importantly, this represents broader stock market strength.
 
As proxies of broader stock market confidence and demand, this is good news.  The equal weighted S&P remains 3% under the 2021 highs.  The Russell 2000 (small caps) remain 16% under the 2021 highs.   
 
 
With the P/E on the S&P 500 running north of 20, which is historically high, there remains plenty of deeply undervalued stocks for investors to suss out.  That bodes well for this chart above to continue narrowing the losses against its 2021 record highs — and to narrow the divergence in this chart …
 
Adding fuel to this, the market's appraisal on the risk of a bounce back in inflation was ratcheted down overnight.  Remember all of the stories about the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates and QE, escaping the deflation vortex of the past three decades?
 
Well, they just reported a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP.
 
As we've discussed in my daily notes, maintaining ultra-easy policy in Japan (negative rates and QE) as the rest of the world was tightening, was the only way major central banks were able to raise rates to combat inflation, without losing control of government bond markets (i.e. runaway yields).
 
So, the Bank of Japan held the line all the way through the global tightening cycle.  Now inflation in major economies is declining sharply, with the potential that inflation could turn into deflation.  And no central bank is more sensitive to the plight of deflation than the Bank of Japan. 
 
Japan is now officially in recession.  That should send the signal that they will continue ultra-easy policy as far as the eye can see, which means they will continue to buy a lot of sovereign debt of the Western world, which (helpfully) puts downward pressure on global interest rates.
 
PS:  If you know someone that might like to receive my daily notes, they can sign up by clicking below and providing their email address … 

 

 

 

 

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February 14, 2024

Austin Goolsbee spoke this morning at the Council on Foreign Relations. He's the President of the Chicago Fed and an FOMC voter.
 
This comes on heels of yesterday's inflation report, and the related selloff in stocks and spike in yields.
 
As we discussed in my note yesterday, the market reaction to this January inflation report was consistent with previous episodes, of recent years, when inflation fears were significant.  But in this case, the conditions didn't fit the reaction (i.e. it was an overreaction).
 
Goolsbee agreed.  
 
He said, "don't get flipped out over yesterday" (his words, regarding the higher inflation reading).  He called the current level of real rates (Fed Funds rate minus inflation) "very high."  And he said if they stay this restrictive for too long, they will turn one problem (inflation) into another problem (unemployment).
 
He also, unprompted, referenced the Fed's December Summary of Economic Projections, where the Fed projected a 2.4% inflation rate in 2024, to be accompanied by three rate cuts (75 bps).  He then voluntarily added that the most recent PCE (inflation) reading was lower than 2.4% on both a three and six month average annual rate.
 
This is very dovish.  It sounds like a guy that's trying to moderate some of the sentiment manipulation that the Fed has engaged in over the past few weeks.
 
They had successfully curbed expectations in the interest rate market, which had anticipated as many as seven quarter-point rate cuts this year; by yesterday afternoon, expectations had adjusted to as few as three cuts.
 
Add to all of this, Goolsbee actually talked about productivity gains.
 
We've talked about it often here in my daily notes.  If productivity growth is offsetting wage growth (which it is), wages can rise without stoking inflation, and it increases the growth potential of the economy.
 
For a Fed that spent the better part of the pre-pandemic decade blaming the weak, muddling economy on weak productivity growth, they've been bizarrely quiet on the subject in this post-pandemic, inflation fighting environment.
 
Goolsbee has broken the silence.  He said, "nothing is more important than the productivity growth rate."  That's a big statement.   
 
And he said if productivity continues to run above long-term trend, "it will definitely change the way we think about the economy."  Translation:  Hot productivity growth means wages can continue to adjust to the level of prices, and, simultaneously, we can see hot economic growth and low inflation.  That's precisely what we're getting. 
 
As for the sustainability of the productivity gains:  As we've discussed, we are in the early innings of generative AI, which might be the most productivity enhancing technological advancement of our lifetime.   

 

 

 

 

 

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February 13, 2024

The January inflation numbers came in a little higher this morning.

Stocks were crushed.  Yields spiked.  And the dollar rallied.

How bad were the numbers?  Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was less than a tenth of a percent above expectations.  The 12-month change was 3.88%.  That’s the lowest level of this inflation cycle, and it was the tenth consecutive lower year-over-year core inflation reading.  Doesn’t sound so bad. 

What about the headline number?  It was also a tenth of a percent above expectations on the monthly reading.  The 12-month change fell from 3.35% to 3.09%.  It didn’t crack 3%, but it was the lowest reading of the past seven months

Clearly this wasn’t the positive surprise we thought we might get today, but did it warrant a 4% selloff in small cap stocks, and a 14 basis point rise in the 10-year yield?

Let’s take a look at the two other times in the past three years that shared the features of 1) a down greater than 4% Russell 2000 and 2) at least a 14 basis point spike in the 10 year yield

It happened on February 25, 2021

What was going on?

It was about inflation.  The 10-year yield had risen from 1% to 1.6% in less than a month.  And the move was quickening.  And this quickening was driven by the market’s judgement that the additional $2 trillion fiscal package coming down the pike from the new President and his aligned Congress was inflationary at best, and recklessly extravagant, at worst.

The $2.2 trillion Cares Act and the additional $900 billion in stimulus passed in December, before Trump’s exit, had already driven a nearly full V-shaped economic recovery (by late January ’21).  And the economy was projected by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) to grow at a 3.7% annualized rate in 2021 (hotter than pre-pandemic growth), with an unemployment rate falling to 5.3% – about right at the average unemployment rate of the past 50 years.  

The prospects of more, massive spending packages looked like an inflation bomb.  

This feature of a big 4%+ down day in small caps and spike in yields also happened on June 13 of 2022

What was going on?

It was a Monday meltdown, following a hot Friday inflation report. 

The Fed had just started tightening and was way behind the curve. 

Inflation was near 9%, the Fed Funds rate was below 1%.  With a Fed meeting just days away, the market ratcheted up expectations for an aggressive 75 basis point hike.  And history suggested they needed to take rates a lot higher in order to stop fueling inflation, and start curbing it.

So, in both cases (Feb of 2021 and June of 2022) stocks fell sharply and yields spiked on significant inflation fears.

It’s fair to say the circumstances are quite different today.  The Fed trajectory of inflation continues to go the right direction (lower).  The Fed is clearly looking in the direction of cutting rates, not raising rates. 

With that in mind, was the selloff in stocks (and bonds) today an overreaction?  It looks that way.

Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq chart, which incorporates the dominant tech companies that are leading the next industrial revolution.  It trades perfectly into this big technical line of support — the trendline from the October lows. 

The S&P futures traded into a similar line today. 

And this trendline has significance.  The October lows were driven by 1) Jerome Powell’s intimation that the market had done the Fed’s job of tightening, 2) the major reversal signal (outside day) that followed, in the bond market … and 3) the huge Q3 earnings from the big tech oligarchy, and the reveal that they were all reorienting their businesses around generative AI. 

 

 

 

 

 

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February 12, 2024

We get the big January inflation report tomorrow.
 
Going into this data last month, stocks were on record highs, the 10-year yield was trading around 4%, and the market was pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts for 2024.  
 
We go into tomorrow's data with stocks, again, on record highs.  The 10-year yield is trading around 4.20% and the market is looking for five quarter-point rate cuts this year.  Of course, these rate expectations have been tamed over the past few weeks by some very deliberate Fed messaging.
 
That leaves the interest rate market leaning in a direction that creates the opportunity for a positive surprise.  That would come in the form of more weak inflation data, which could influence the Fed to start calibrating for sooner or deeper rate cuts.
 
With that, let's take a look at the headline consumer price index.  This is where we could get a positive surprise.
 
We knew heading into last month's report, that the headline CPI would bounce  — breaking the disinflation trend.  And it was because the year-over-year change in the December index value would be measured against the low base of the year prior.  That calculation produced a 3.4% inflation number (up from the prior 3.1%). 
 
You can see it in this chart  …
 
 
You can also see the higher base that the January number will be measured against.  
 
With that, we looked at this table last month, and deduced that we may be in for an acceleration in the disinflation (i.e. a quickening in the fall of inflation).  And it may start with this report we see tomorrow.   
 
 
The government's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the 12-month change in prices without seasonal adjustments.  That's the index in this table above. 
 
As you can see in the far right column of the blue shaded area of the table, the 12-month change in prices slides aggressively in the coming months — if we assume the average monthly price change over the past twelve months (of 0.23%).
 
If prices increased at this average monthly rate in January, we would see a headline inflation number well below 3% tomorrow.  And if we extrapolate that rate of change out to March, the CPI index would be at 2.33% by the Fed's March meeting.  

 

 

 

 

 

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February 08, 2024

As we discussed last month, the trend that dominated much of last year has returned, with divergence between the performance of big tech stocks and small cap (and value) stocks.

The Nasdaq is on new record highs, led by the dominant tech stocks that are building and delivering the first waves of generative AI.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (small caps) is down on the year, though less so after today.  The nearly 9% divergence started to slowly close today.  The Russell 2000 was up 1.7% on the day.  Nasdaq was relatively flat.

The performance divergence isn’t just small cap related, it’s broad-based, as it was for much of last year.  If we look at the equal-weighted S&P 500, it’s up just half a percent on the year.

But remember, the performance divergence between “big tech and the rest” narrowed aggressively over the final two months of 2023.  And it was triggered by Jerome Powell’s signal that the tightening cycle was over (late October).

At this point in the New Year, the view on the direction of rates remains clear, but the view on “when” and “by how much” has changed.  The view has adjusted to two, if not three fewer cuts this year.  And that adjustment in market expectations has been deliberately manipulated by the Fed.

The higher the borrowing cost, the stiffer the headwind (at the moment) for most companies not innovating on the leading edge of the next industrial revolution.

So, with that in mind, the interest rate market is now leaning in a direction that creates the opportunity for a positive surprise.  In this case, a positive surprise would be (more) weak inflation data, which could influence the Fed to lose its “patience.”

And we have two inflation data points coming over the next five days.  Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the revisions to its CPI seasonal adjustments.  These are adjustments that can change the CPI data for the past five years.

That’s a big deal — a big enough deal for both the Fed Chair and Fed governor (Waller) to recently emphasize it as something that could “change the picture on inflation.”  They both pointed to the adjustment last year that reflected hotter than previously reported inflation data.

So, clearing that hurdle tomorrow, with no adverse adjustments to the current inflation trajectory, would be a positive for rate cut outlook. 

And then we get the January CPI report next Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

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February 07, 2024

Yesterday, we talked about the parallels between the current environment and the late 90s boom.
 
A technology revolution was underway in the late 90s, with the rapid adoption of the internet.  Productivity was high.  Growth was hot.  Inflation was low. And the Fed juiced it with rate cuts, starting in 1995.   
 
This time around, we have a technology revolution, driven by the rapid adoption of generative AI.  Productivity is high.  Growth is hot. Inflation has fallen fast, back to low levels.  And the Fed will be juicing it with rate cuts in the coming months.
 
If history is our guide, we should expect a coming boom in IPOs
 
Take a look at the volume of IPOs in the late 90s, the biggest of which came early, in 1996.  The frenzied return chasing came late, in 1999.     
 
 
Major mergers in the financial sector took place during and after that period, but let's take a look at how the late 90s IPO boom influenced the Wall Street kings of underwriting (with emphasis on the performance from the first Fed rate cut up to the March 2000 stock market peak). 
 
Here's JP Morgan … 
 
 
Citibank …
 
 
Morgan Stanley …
 
 
And no one was responsible for more IPO underwriting volume in that era than Goldman Sachs.  And they went public in 1999, in the height of the frenzy.  The stock went up 60% in 10 months, before the stock market topped in March of 2000.  

 

 

 

 

 

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February 06, 2024

We’ve looked at the below chart on the Fed’s New Financial Conditions Index over the past couple of months.  Let’s revisit this, and talk about how it relates to what the Fed did with “real interest rates” (Fed Funds rate adjusted for inflation) in the late 90s …

Remember, this index is designed to incorporate the lags of monetary policy, and project (in this case) one-year forward what the impact will be on real GDP growth.  In this chart above, if the line is above zero, it represents tight financial conditions, which project a drag on economic growth (from restrictive policy).  If it’s below zero, it’s a boost to growth (stimulative policy). 

As we discussed in one of my notes last month, if we look back at moments when financial conditions were historically this tight (denoted in the chart above), every moment was soon followed with some form of Fed easing (either rate cuts, QE or, in the case of 2015-2016, removing projected rate hikes).

In the 1994-1995 period, the Fed continued raising rates into a low inflation, slow economic recovery.  It was a mistake.  Financial conditions were tight.  By July of ’95, the Fed did indeed start cutting rates (i.e. easing).  And in doing so, they set into motion a boom-time period for growth and stocks.

The economy went on to average 4.5% quarterly annualized growth through the end of the 90s.  And stocks put up five big, double-digit return years, averaging 26% per annum.

But as you can see in the next chart, the Fed kept real rates at historically high levels throughout this boom.  

So how did the economy and markets do so well, with the Fed holding real rates high (which is restrictive to economic output)?

We were in a technology revolution — rapid adoption of the internet.  Productivity was high.  Inflation was low.  The economy was booming, even with the Fed tinkering with interest rates around 5%.

So, with this late 90s period, we can see parallels to the current environment.

Could the Fed hold real rates here (at historically high levels), and still get a boom-time period, driven by the technology revolution of generative AI?

Growth solves a lot of problems.  But the U.S. debt/gdp has doubled since the late 90s.  And while the debt service/gbp is comparable to the late 90s period at the moment, it won’t be as they continue to refinance at high nominal rates. 

The Fed doesn’t have the luxury to sit around and watch for long.  They have to cut.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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February 05, 2024

The Fed Chair (Jay Powell) appeared last night in a sit down interview on 60 Minutes.

This type of mainstream media interview/Q&A session with the Fed Chair has historically been rare, though less rare in the post Global Financial Crisis era. The Fed Chair tends to talk economics and policy with economic and policy practitioners.  These types of Q&A’s are typically done in Congressional hearings, following Fed meetings, or at select economic conferences.

With that, these 60 Minutes interviews have clearly come at times, over the past 15 years, when the Fed has the desire to speak directly to the broader public.

Last night’s sit down with 60 Minutes was Powell’s fourth, in his five years as Fed Chair.  His predecessor, Ben Bernanke, also used the 60 Minutes platform to speak to the American people a couple of times.

What was the common theme in each of these interviews?

A crisis of confidence, or (at best) the vulnerability of confidence.

For Bernanke, back in 2009 and 2010, he was directing the Fed through the storm of the financial crisis, and he and the Fed were being destroyed in the media.  And that media tone was opening the door for global leaders to take shots at the Fed.

The Fed was trying to restore confidence, and it wasn’t going well.  So, Bernanke took to 60 minutes to speak directly to the people – to set the record straight.  He shot down the media criticism and said he was seeing signs of “green shoots” in the economy.  This first Bernanke interview (in March 2009) set the bottom in the stock market — and it turned the tide in global sentiment.

In late 2010, the Bernanke interview followed a bad jobs report that left confidence vulnerable, and left stocks vulnerable to undoing the progress of the previous year.  Bernanke’s attempt to assuage fears led to a 10% break higher in stocks, to new post-Lehman highs.

For Powell, his first sit down with 60 Minutes was in March of 2019.  We had just ended the week with a 4.4% plunge in Chinese stocks.  Powell appeared on 60 Minutes that Sunday night.  It was a response to the growing risks of a confidence shock (given the December 2018 stock market decline, Brexit drama and China/U.S. trade uncertainty).

It was an opportunity to tell the public that the economy is doing well, despite the media’s doom and gloom stories.  Stocks bounced and rallied 9% over the next month and half and went on to new record highs.

In May of 2020, Powell made another 60 Minutes appearance.

It came on the back of a very soft CPI number, which created chatter about negative interest rates and a deflationary spiral (this, despite the massive policy response to the lockdowns just months earlier).

Stocks went south.  Powell emerged.  By Monday morning, stocks were popping, continuing the sharp recovery (17% higher in just three weeks).

Powell appeared again, for a 60 Minutes sit down, in April of 2021.  Stocks had just finished the prior week on record highs (unlike prior 60 Minute appearances).

But a risk to confidence was lurking.  The threat of an inflation shock was building.  Ten-year Treasury yields had nearly doubled on the year, back to pre-pandemic levels (of around 1.7%).  CPI data was on the calendar for the coming week, and expectations were for another hot number.

The Fed’s concern at that time?  A stall in the momentum of the fragile economic recovery.

So, in that interview, Jay Powell assured the public that the Fed would not budge on its ultra-stimulative policy, until the recovery was “complete.”

The 60 Minutes effect worked, again.  Stocks went up.  Yields went down.  And to cement confidence that the Fed would keep the pedal-to-the-metal on the economic recovery, they introduced the word “transitory,” when describing inflation, later that month.

Now, Powell was back in the seat again last night for another interview (actually record last Thursday).

He had just finished the recent Fed meeting, where he implied they had the luxury of being patient with rates at these currently high and restrictive levels, because the economy is strong, the labor market is strong, and inflation is going their direction.

What’s the concern this time?  If the history of these interviews is our guide, it’s the threat of waning confidence.  In this case, waning confidence would mean maybe the Fed doesn’t have the luxury of being patient.

With that, the 60 Minutes interviewer told him he had “disappointed a lot of people on Wednesday.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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February 02, 2024

Stocks finish the week on record highs.  And it was fueled by the earnings and insights from the big four tech companies that are working on the frontier of generative AI.

As we discussed on Wednesday, when this big trendline was tested in the S&P, a bounce to new highs would confirm the underpinnings of this stock market strength (i.e. it’s the technology revolution boom).  

As we’ve discussed here in my daily notes, with the events of the past year, it’s clear that we are in the early stages of a new industrial revolution.

Remember, generative AI is game changing technology, because it can create new output, based on the patterns and knowledge it has learned from data and interactions — and, importantly, it can innovate

Clearly from the earnings call this past week, the tech giants have full conviction in this new industrial revolution.  They’ve completely shifted the focus on their businesses to AI.

The “ChatGPT moment” (as the Nvidia CEO/Founder has called it) was the starting line.  That reset the outlook for the economy and for markets.  That moment crystallized how to transition from the technology of large language models to a product and service.

With that, the best time to invest in this new technology era was November 30, 2022 (when ChatGPT was released).  

And you can see it in the chart of Nvidia …

   

The next best time to invest in this new technology era is now.

Not only is it not too late, it’s still in the early stages.  But as we’ve discussed, it is fast moving.

The first Industrial Revolution brought us steam engines and mechanized manufacturing.  The second, electricity and mass production.  And the third, computers and the internet.

Each grew the economic pie.  This one will too.   

Moreover, the CEO of OpenAi (developer of ChatGPT), Sam Altman, said the next iteration of ChatGPT (5) “will change the world.”  

And it’s rumored that it has been developed and is being tested right now.

Here are some things he’s recently said about it:

He says it’s a tool for productivity — it will magnify what we can do (a personal AI “assistant”).  Costs will go down.  Capabilities will go up.  He says it will be more reliable than earlier versions, have better reasoning abilities, and be customizable to everyone’s individual styles, and we will run it on our own data.   

He says it will be “multimodal.”

What does that mean?  It means the model will understand and interact with not just text, but images, audio and video. 

This opens up an entirely different level of human-computer interaction. 

Robots will understand human commands, voice and gestures, facial expressions, tones of voice, etc. 

Autonomous vehicles will have a better understanding of their environment.  In-car assistants will truly be an in-car assistant (engaging in natural language, interactive, responsive to verbal and visual cues).  Your car will know your behaviors and preferences. 

Education will be more engaging and interactive, and tailored to the styles of needs of every student.  As Satya Nadella (CEO of Microsoft) said, every person in the world will have their own personally tailored AI tutor.

This probably all sounds interesting, but nothing too groundbreaking (given the technology we have now). 

The real difference maker in this next version of models, is the “learning” feature of generative AI.  In the above examples, the models will need less and less human command over time.  They learn from previous commands, interactions, feedback and they adapt and optimize their behaviors.  And they become more and more accurate in their predictions/output.

This technology will revolutionize product development, improve disease diagnosis and solve complex problems — and do it all much faster than has been done in the past.

With all of the above in mind, we’ve been working on identifying and thoughtfully building a portfolio of companies on the leading edge of this transformation, in my AI-Innovation Portfolio

We now have 14 stocks in the portfolio, since we launched in June of last year.  

We started with a focus on AI infrastructure stocks.  These are the “picks and shovels” of this technology revolution.  And we’ve since added massive SaaS companies that will deliver the capabilities of generative AI to companies around the world.  As the Microsoft CEO has said, 2024 will be the year generative AI scales.

Today we made another addition to the portfolio.  It’s a company that’s key to securely powering generative AI applications.  With a client list that reads like a who’s who of industry, and partnerships with the dominant cloud platforms deploying AI, this company is uniquely positioned to benefit from the massive surge in data center demand.

And that’s a fresh growth catalyst for this company that has already achieved an eye-popping growth trajectory, having grown revenue 20x since 2017.

This is another exciting high-growth, high-margin, founder-led stock for our AI-Innovation Portfolio — at the forefront of the gen AI-driven technology revolution.

And again, it’s still early in this technology revolution. There are tremendous investment opportunities, in an era that has already brought us the multi-trillion dollar companies.  More are coming.

If you aren’t yet a member, and you’d like to join us and get all of the details on this stock and the rest of our portfolio, you can do so following the instructions below. 

The next wave will be the tremendous potential for new businesses to form around generative AI, and for old businesses to adopt and realize the benefits of generative AI.

Here’s how you can join me…  

The AI-Innovation Portfolio is about allocating to HIGH-GROWTH.

For $297 per quarter ($99 per month), you’ll gain exclusive access to my in-depth research, expert analysis, and timely investment recommendations focused on the generative AI revolution.

You can join me by clicking here — get signed up, and then keep an eye out for Welcome and Getting Started emails from me.